Friday, March 27, 2009

SOS World GDP

GDP = consumption + gross investment+ govt. spending+ (export - import)

GDP = rent + interest + profits + wages + (corporate income tax+dividend+undistributed profits)


2007 - GDP = USD54.6 trillion

2008 - GDP = USD56.2 trillion (3% growth)


World (2007)
54,584,918[4]

European Union (expected to drop 6%)
16,905,620
[4]
1
United States (expected to drop 6%)
13,840,000
2
Japan
4,381,576 (expected to drop 8%)
3
Germany (expected to drop 6%)
3,320,913
4
China (PRC) (expected to grow 7%)
3,280,224
h
5
United Kingdom (expected to drop 6%)
2,804,437
6
France (expected to drop 6%)
2,593,779
7
Italy
2,104,666
8
Spain
1,439,983
9
Canada
1,436,086
10
Brazil
1,313,590
General calculation - World GDP drop 3% = 56.2 x 0.97 = USD54.5 trillion drop about USD1.7trillion
4th Quarter GDP for 2008
United States = - 6.2%
EU = -6%
Japan = -13%
Singapore = -17%
World Derivatives = USD600 trillion
MyView
Citigroup, Bank of America, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo off balance sheet assets is about USD5.2 trillion (based on 2008 filing).
The top 5 GDP countries need to normalise their GDP which is inflated by the US over consumption and US over gearing (and also Europe). Hence, there will be a severe adjustment in these countries.
This severe readjustment will cause volatility in currency, economy, social and political crisis. Get prepared. Learn about ETF in short selling.

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