Monday, March 16, 2009

SOS Deleveraging




  1. Corporate Profits are mainly generated from Debt
  2. Debt is healthy if it is within one's mean (which is not the case for US)
  3. As a result of over consumption and over leveraging by US, the only save prediction is that US will need to reset their normality (i.e. deleverage back to a healthy level i.e. about 200% of GDP instead of 358%)
  4. When US is resetting its new norm, consumption is expected to dropped as it is a fallacy consumption driven by debt and saving will gradually improve.
  5. Similarly, this is the same that is happening in UK and Europe, GDP for last quarter for US is -6%, UK & Europe is -6%, Japan is -12%, Singapore is -16%, China is about +6%.

MyView

  1. World GDP will be in negative mode for next few years due mainly to deleveraging in US and Europe, so set a new normacy from its over investment and over consumption party over the last 10-15 years.
  2. Hyper inflation (mainly on food, medical, & education, less on property & equity) will set in over the next few years resulting from printing of money.
  3. More importantly, knowing what the cause of the problem is important, it is far more important to be able to "predict" what will be the future so that our INVESTMENT is in the right sector to maintain or sustain its disposable value arising from this unprecedented crisis.




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