Saturday, March 21, 2009

SOS Depresssion

Depression 1930 vs 2008

Hoover vs Bush
Rosevelt vs Obama

The 1930s
US Depression in 1930s mainly due to easy credit from early 20s to late 20s causing the stock bubble.
Hoover try to fixed the economy by government intervention to control the interest rate, protectionism, price control etc which make it worst.
Similarly, when Rosevelt came in, continue to intervent until the world war 2, when American spent lots of money in the war and cause inflation.

The 2008s
Bush junior became President in 2000, during his presidency, Alan Greenspan increase the interest rate during the Tech Bubble, and the equity dropped drastically, to prevent the economy to go further down, the Bush administration loosen the credit, and Greenspan starts reducing interest rate and encourages housing loan. Soon another bubble is created, now the housing bubble. Easy loan was given on the pretext that house price will never fall. Those who bought in the early 2001 makes tonnes of money in the early year of the housing bubble until it was burst in late 2007. On top of this, derivatives are created from the housing mortgage as well as other structured products, which does not has a fundamental underlying assets.

So, there is not much differences between 30s and 2008, only now the situation is worst because of high gearing and federal deficit, making the recession harder to fix. The printing of moneywill prolong the recession and cause a worst depression than the 30s.

MyView

So, be prepared.

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