Eventually US Dollar will look like this. Copy from turtleinvestor's blog. Hopefully, it can buy a McDonald.
Facts and figures to ponder;
World GDP = USD60T
World Derivatives = USD600T (1000% of world GDP)
US GDP = USD14T (2008)
US Earnings = USD1.2T
US Debt = US50 T
US Market Capitalisation is about USD10T (end of 2008 or 71% of GDP)
US Earnings mainly contributed by over gearing (3.6 times of GDP) & over consumption (USD10T or 71% of GDP ). The long term gearing of US is 2 times of GDP.
US in the last few years, contributed mainly by the financial institutions i.e. investment banks like Lehman, Bear Stearn, Goldman Sach, JP Morgan, BoA etc, mortgate institutions like AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
World Toxic Asset = US3.6T (by Roubini, about USD2.0T from US)
Roubini predicted earnings will drop to USD50 to USD60 x PE of say 10 = S&P 500 = 500 - 600 points
Since the US Earnings are inflated by Gearing & Over Consumption, if we reduce the gearing to say 200% from 360% in order to go back to NORMACY, loan is expected to drop say 44%.
USD50T debt = US Earnings of USD1.2T
USD28T debt (dropped 44%) = USD Earnings = should dropped 44%x1.2T = USD0.5T
Consumption USD10T = US Earnings of USD1.2T
Reasonable consumption USD7T = US Earnings should dropped 30% x 1.2T = USD0.4T
Hence, a reasonable or NORMACY kind of earnings after adjustment of GEARING and CONSUMPTION
USD1.2T - USD0.5T - USD0.4T = USD0.3T x PE of 8.3 times = GDP of USD2.5T
Hence, the Normal GDP of USD is USD2.5T from the over inflated GDP of USD14.0T.
MyView
Just assumed the US as a Corporation making USD1.2 T with debt of USD50T and derivatives of USD300T, and a over inflated GDP of USD14T of which 71% or USD10T is consumption, what do we get?
Just use simple arithmatic calculation and you will soon realise the Corporation is a BANKRUPT.
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