Friday, April 29, 2011

SOS Is the market rationale?



BDI is currently at 1254 and the peak is about 12,000 in early 2008.

Don't bother trying to use fundamental to explain the financial markets, it is emotional, not rational.

Oil price goes up, share market should drop right?
BDI indicates the economic activity right, why market up when economic activity is down?


MyView

I am not saying fundamental is not useful, or technical, for the matter, economic cycles, all are important tools to evaluate the stocks. However, the price and volume of the stocks is the behavior of all participants, from experts and non-experts. Whichever way we analyse it, they follow certain mentality, called HERD MENTALITY. Never change, never will, period.

Well, the funny part, there is always 2 schools of thoughts (at least) in evaluating the financial markets. There must be something lacking in the books, economics is like a mysterious subject. It is neither science nor art.

The most followed guru in investment in shares is non other than Warren Buffett. But lately, he has been tainted by his involvement with Goldman Sachs and Sokol. Like he said, it takes years to acquire the reputation but take seconds to destroy it.

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