Well, if we are lucky, we are born in the cycle that no one has seen that property market actually comes down. That is why, it depends which cycle you are in.
That is why, the different between fundamentalist and investment cycle. No matter how you evaluate and select the best undervalue stocks, if the investment cycle is going down, you will not do any better. Like swimming against the current.
So, it is important to know the bigger cycle. Or you may be fighting against the current, which will not yield much.
The medium cycle a few said was a deflation cycle, by Charles Nenner, i.e. stocks will continue to go down to 5000 in a 2-3 years. Meanwhile, it may go sideway.
MyView
Well, if you read the cycle wrongly (the smaller cycle), you miss the opportunity (S&P went up 100% since 2009), even if your bigger cycle is correct i.e. deflation scenerio.
If you look at Japanese Yen, almost every year after the bust in 1989, high and low of yen is about 20% different. But in the long run i.e. 1989 to 2011 (march), Yen actually appreciated against US dollar.
In short, one cannot beat the MAJOR CYCLE but can take advantage of the minor cycles.
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