Andy Xie has been saying bubble in China properties for more than a year. So is James Chanos.
Andy Xie has a 100% track record in spotting bubble, but not so much on the timing, while James Chanos, is the hedge fund manager that makes lots of money when he shorted Enron. He shorted China properties via HK and Australian shares, the main suppliers to China. I figured he will be shorting BHP.
Another guy worth mentioning is Gary Shilling thinks China export will drop, hence, bring along her BRICs partners which have been supplying her with tonnes of ore, copper, crude oil, coal etc. And of course, he also believe China is in for a hard landing.
MyView
All 3 of them have good track records, but not very accurate on timing. However, most of their major calls materialized. Their arguements are based on fundamental analysis of demand and supply of properties. James Chanos pictured China as Dubai 1000 times. I believe it is more like Japan, when it grow so fast in the late 80s like nothing will go wrong, it went wrong. Similar picture here with China.
So, hold your breath, this could be DOMINO number 1.
No comments:
Post a Comment