Friday, April 29, 2011

SOS Is the market rationale?



BDI is currently at 1254 and the peak is about 12,000 in early 2008.

Don't bother trying to use fundamental to explain the financial markets, it is emotional, not rational.

Oil price goes up, share market should drop right?
BDI indicates the economic activity right, why market up when economic activity is down?


MyView

I am not saying fundamental is not useful, or technical, for the matter, economic cycles, all are important tools to evaluate the stocks. However, the price and volume of the stocks is the behavior of all participants, from experts and non-experts. Whichever way we analyse it, they follow certain mentality, called HERD MENTALITY. Never change, never will, period.

Well, the funny part, there is always 2 schools of thoughts (at least) in evaluating the financial markets. There must be something lacking in the books, economics is like a mysterious subject. It is neither science nor art.

The most followed guru in investment in shares is non other than Warren Buffett. But lately, he has been tainted by his involvement with Goldman Sachs and Sokol. Like he said, it takes years to acquire the reputation but take seconds to destroy it.

SOS Can US sustain without QE3?



Bernanke says..... on 28 April 2011



"The conclusion that the second round was ineffective could be validated only if someone thought this was a panacea (one that cures all)" he says. "Relative to what we expected, anticipated, the programme was SUCCESSFUL".

Bernanke makes clear that there will be no QE3.

So why not do more? "The trade off is less attractive"


MyView


"Trade off is less attractive" refer to political and inflation pressure. Now, I think the fund will begin between June to October. First time, the drug addict without the drug. Not sure what will happen, but it will be interesting to observe. If the dossage is strong enough, it will last a bit longer.


By the way, how is US housing and employment doing? Are they out of the woods? I really hope so, couple with gasoline at $4 per gallon, and high commodities prices, taxpayers may be hard hit. It could be worse, I guess if they stopped QE2.


I believe one cannot stop the tsunami, but can reduce the impact by having walls. Then again, the money spend on building the wall (misallocation of resources) has its side effects. No one can actually stop the tsunami. It may even build up a bigger one.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

SOS FIsher's Theory of Deflation Depression

Assuming, accordingly, that, at some point of time, a state of over-indebtedness exists, this will tend to lead to liquidation, through the alarm either of debtors or creditors or both. Then we may deduce the following chain of consequences in nine links:

(1) Debt liquidation leads to distress selling and to
(2) Contraction of deposit currency, as bank loans are paid off, and to a slowing down of velocity of circulation. This contraction of deposits and of their velocity, precipitated by distress selling, causes
(3) A fall in the level of prices, in other words, a swelling of the dollar. Assuming, as above stated, that this fall of prices is not interfered with by reflation or otherwise, there must be
(4) A still greater fall in the net worths of business, precipitating bankruptcies and
(5) A like fall in profits, which in a “capitalistic,” that is, a private-profit society, leads the concerns which are running at a loss to make
(6) A reduction in output, in trade and in employment of labor. These losses, bankruptcies and unemployment, lead to
(7) Hoarding and slowing down still more the velocity of circulation.

The above eight changes cause (9) Complicated disturbances in the rates of interest, in particular, a fall in the nominal, or money, rates and a rise in the real, or commodity, rates of interest.

(don't ask me where is cause #8, it is extracted from www.londonbanker.blogspot.com)

MyView

Whatever that is over expanded will contract (we do not need Paul Krugman, Roubini, Jim Rogers or Fisher to tell us that).

The credit expansion since the 1930s till 2010 in USA, almost 70 years is called OVER EXPANDED in credit (not printing of physical money) and it had come to a very dangerous level that any financial ratio can measure.

In 'pop' in 2008, and the Fed and US Government did what it is suppose to do, REFLATE the economy, or they will lose their jobs. So, 2009, 2010 and 2011, they have used almost all tricks they know: Bailouts, Stimulus, QEs, changing accounting policies, zero interest, mismanagement of regulators, rating agencies. How long can this goes on, until their sovereign debt pop?

And, if they are 'cunningly clever', they may buy lenders may buy themselves another year, then, comes DEFLATION (i.e. credit contracts).

So there you go (for fun only) :

Credit Creation - INFLATION (1970 to 2008)
Intervention - REFLATION (2009 to 2011/2)
Credit Contraction - DEFLATION (2013 to 2015)
after which

War - later on after war, HYPER INFLATION (2016 onwards)

I hope I got the sequence right. A lot of experts jump straight into Hyperinflation, which what USA hope for, paying back the debtor with toilet paper, which they wish.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

SOS How is Malaysia doing statistically?
























MyView


GDP grow from USD75 bil to USD200 bil from 1995 to 2010 (increase USD125bil)

Credit grow from USD80 bil to USD300 bil from 1995 to 2010 (increase USD220 bil)

Generally, GDP credit grow 1.76 times per GDP. This is inconclusive, but it does show that our GDP is driven up mainly from credit creation.


Market cap in US dollar bearly back to 1996/7 level, after 15 years.

















SOS Life is getting harder in Malaysia?


Food (p.a.) 1500 4500(3X)
Petron (R97 per litre RM) 1.00 2.70(2.7X)



By Kenny Gan, Malaysia Chronicle





I started working as a young graduate electrical engineer in 1983 in an engineering firm in Kuala Lumpur. My starting salary was RM1200 which was pretty typical in those days. This may not seem much now but mixed rice was less than RM2.00 with Chinese tea and petrol was RM1.00 a litre.





After 6 months and an increment under my belt I plonked down for set of wheels; a cute little Toyota Corolla which I paid off in 3 years.





Two years later I put down the deposit for a double storey terrace house in a thriving suburb near the capital.Fast forward to the present and it would be very hard for any graduate to follow my act without substantial help from their parents. No, I wasn’t from the privileged class and I didn’t get a leg-up from my parents, save for the education they gave me.





Present day graduates start their working life at RM1800 to RM2000 a month, not a lot of difference from 25 years ago but prices of everything have tripled and quadrupled. A hawker meal now cost RM5 (drinks extra), prices of cars and houses have grossly outpaced income and there are new expenses like toll, hand phones, Astro and internet.





Our ringgit has depreciated against foreign currencies making consumer goods and overseas travel more expensive. To put it simply, real income has declined.





Today we find that graduates have to ride motorbikes if their parents do not help them buy a car. A car loan has to be stretched to 8 or 9 years just for a basic family car. The middle class is burdened by high car loans which they have little choice due to the stunted public transport. We find couples who are both working graduates lamenting that they cannot find any house within their means. Many of them have to get help from their parents to pay the house deposit. Unfortunately they will have nothing to give a helping hand to their children in future.





At the lower end of the labour market things are no better. From 1985 to 1995 salaries for factory workers, manual workers, office staff and the like increased by about 50% but they have stagnated for the past 15 years. Today our factories are filled with foreign workers because local workers are unable to survive on wages of RM700 a month which will be wiped out by transport and rental alone. Are they expected to spend all their free time working overtime just to earn enough to eat?Employers decry that locals are not interested but our workers are expected to survive on wages which were marginal even 15 years ago even though prices of goods and services have more than doubled since. We should note that if the salaries of the lower level cannot go up neither can the salaries of the upper level so the masses of foreign are also keeping the salaries of professionals depressed.



Going backwards


There are few countries where life gets harder as the years pass but Malaysia is one of them. In a healthy country it is more usual for the standard of living to improve from generation to generation. In Australia graduates are buying houses earlier then before despite the rise in prices and they holiday overseas before they graduate. Even traditional basket cases like the Philippines stay the same if they do not improve. A declining standard of living is the usual province of failed states like Zimbabwe, Congo and Myanmar.Compared to countries like Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea which were on the same footing as us in the 1970s, Malaysia’s economic progress has been dismal.





Today, they have left us far behind despite lacking our advantage of rich natural resources. Singapore is now a first world country with per capita income of 5 times ours, Hong Kong is 4 times and Taiwan and S. Korea about 2.5 times. The value of our ringgit has depreciated from RM2.00 to USD1.00 in the early 1980s to RM3.20 today while their currencies have appreciated substantially.




Malaysia’s economy has indeed been growing at 6%-8% a year for most of the past two decades. But GDP growth figures do not translate into general economic wellbeing as the disparity in income between the haves and the have-nots has moved steadily wider. According to the Gini coefficient which measures the inequality of income distribution, Malaysia has the worst income disparity in Asia. Wealth is being created but they mostly end up in the hands of the politico-business elite while corruption robs the poor and middle class to give to the rich.



What went wrong with Malaysia?Authoritarian governments like Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea can still generate economic progress and uplift the standard of living of their citizens so what went wrong with Malaysia? Do they have something we lack or is it due to something we have that burdened us?If there is any one reason which is the mother of all reasons for Malaysia’s lacklustre performance it is racial policies which has replaced meritocracy, encouraged rent seeking practices, resulted in economic inefficiency and distortion, pulled down education standards, caused a brain drain and become a vehicle for wastage and massive corruption.




They are also responsible for dampening the human spirit required to drive the economy forward.The role of corruption in regressing living standards cannot be understated. Corruption is basically a re-distribution of wealth from the poor and middle class to the rich. The plunder of public funds eventually means higher direct and indirect taxes like GST and higher charges for public services. Unfair negotiated sweetheart deals between the government and cronies such toll concessionaires, IPPs and water supply are passed to the man in the street to foot the bill by paying higher tariffs.Protectionism for an ill-advised car industry has saddled the middle class with paying high prices for shoddily built cars while favoured cronies laugh all the way to the bank. Consumers have to grapple with external inflationary pressure from world commodities and internally generated inflation to feed cronies.



Where to, Malaysia?




Najib’s NEM (New Economic Model) contain lofty aims to lift Malaysia to a high income country but it does not address the structural problem of efficiency sapping racial policies, endemic corruption low education standard and dependency on foreign workers. Oppression of democratic rights and subjugating the independence of law enforcement institutions like the judiciary, police and MACC also keep investors away. Without the political will to institute real reforms whatever snazzy economic plan rolled out will become an extension of the NEP and fail.As real income continue to decline in the face of stagnated wages and increasing inflation the standard of living will keep going down. What happens next is predictable. If our graduates cannot make a decent living here they will go overseas to look for work. Following their heels will be masses of Malaysians looking for work as maids, waiters and unskilled labourers.




We will become a maid and labour exporting country like Philippines and Indonesia.As long as BN continues to rule there will be no meaningful reforms to uplift the economy and living standards of the common people. What the country needs is a new government which can discard the racial baggage of the past to drive Malaysia forwards. The alternative is a maid exporting country and by 2020 instead of a high income country.




MyView




GDP is overated, period. Standard of living includes, education standards, crime rate (every part of PJ is either guarded or gated or both, increase cost of living and fear of crime), cleaniness, lack of corruption, fairness in government policies, reasonable justice in court, meritocracy, effective execution of law etc. This is not saying other countries do not have or share the same problems, it is COMPARATIVE.




Taking away our natural like oil and palm oil, I am wondering what will happen to Malaysia.

Sunday, April 24, 2011

SOS Genocide in USA





  1. Genocide on the American citizens.

  2. Collapse of the US Treasuries.

Fiat Money is paired. US-Euro, US-Yen, US-Yuan, Euro-Yen, Euro-Yuan. It is basically a tug of wall. All of them has been printing since the crisis of 2008. I believe all of these currency will have a zig zag pattern against each others, due to the fact of credit implosion at a different time.


What the traditional money like GOLD. All of them will be depreciated against gold eventually, in the long run, like what the US dollar, which has dropped more than 97% in the last 70 years. However, there will be a catch, how would any of them collapsed? It had to collapsed against another currency.


So, one can argue that, if your rating is cut, hence, the confidence issue will arise. So, let us say, USA's AAA rating is cut to just an A (we know it is worst than junk bond), so it will force everyone to dump US dollar. However, the unfortunate part is that when you dump a currency, you will have to be against another currency, what would you buy then, Yen? Sterling? Euro? or perhaps gold? Brilliant idea, since gold is real money (with limited supply) why not everyone just convert their US dollar into gold. But at the moment, gold is only worth on paper USD7 trillion and world's wealth in about USD125 trillion. So, gold price will have to explode, from US1500 to US15000 per oz?


Will it be possible, then everyone will trade with GOLD? In such a case, what about Euro, will it shoot up to the moon, since US dollar collapse. The next question we ask, is Europe economically more sound than USA? They are not far off.


So, how would we explain the Collapse of US dollar. We do know, the end game that US dollar will be a toilet paper, so is Euro and so is Yen.


MyView


Problem with experts nowadays, they only explain one side of the coin. And of course, some hide the other side of the coin. But the world has not really seen how a credit implosion looks like, Japan experience it for the last 15 years, they are still in denial.


We know that US have trillions of bad debt that is yet to implode, what will happen if it burst? This is a trillion dollar questions. But Thomas Jefferson did said about the credit creation, first it will cause INFLATION and ultimately DEFLATION. The question now is inflation comes about from credit creation, and deflation comes about from credit implosion. Which is the like scenerio going forward?










Saturday, April 23, 2011

SOS Illusions and Delusions



The truth is out there.



It cannot be denied that we are living in illusion and delusion.



Something appears to be one way, but the actual truth is far from what it appears. That is why our forefathers said, never judge a book by its cover.



A lot of things are base on perception. Politics is based on perception. Truth are twisted and manipulated to justified an end. We have seen too much in this country and so are other countries. Truth is not important, unless it can gain political milage.




MyView




It is a chaotic world out there. Truths can be lies, lies can be truths, depends how do we perceive them. We can live in a better world if we practice truth, compassion and forebearance.

Friday, April 22, 2011

SOS Why Dollar will Crash



Lots of expert predict dollar will crash, or collapsed, due to the money printing for the last two years, including Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, and Peter Schiff and lots of more experts.


Only two believe it will strengthen first before it can collapse, they are Gary Shilling and Robert Prechter.

If it collapsed, USA technically has given China lots of toilet papers. But would it? Only one way this way happen, the implosion of debt will far outpace the Fed QEs. What is the chances of this happen?

Of course, USA wish they can hyper-inflate out of their debt, that would be ideal, but the question, would they get away such easy, after printing for the last 70 years. I believe most asset class will deflate over the next few years, example, commodities, stocks, bonds, properties, and of course "social media", sovereign ratings, government bonds, etc.

Of course, everyone is correct at the moment because all commodities peak, stocks peak, social media assets, etc.


MyView


It is USA's wishes to hyper-inflate out of their debt. It would have been a perfect way to get out of debt Japan can't do it. Because the debt implosion and debt contraction exceed all interventions by the government. Think about it, what will happen to all those BAD DEBTS, who will suffer for it, banks or taxpayers?

Thursday, April 21, 2011

SOS What is the value of Money & GOLD?



GOLD



Merrill Lynch analysts wrote “Gold is sometimes a currency, sometimes a commodity and sometimes a store of value.

According to Mike Shedlock



To answer this question one must look back at how gold evolved to become money in the first place. First of all, it always was a commodity with a demand based on its usefulness for creating ornamentation and jewelry, so there was a prior demand for gold that made it useful in barter.



This latter point - that the State can't create gold out of thin air - is what lies at the heart of the monetary demand for gold.



In the shorter term, the motives of gold holders who to refuse to sell (possibly even adding to their position) often depend on immediate concerns such as real interest rates, inflation expectations, the spread between short and long term interest rates as a proxy for the likely bias of monetary policy, and the exchange value of the US dollar.Typically gold is a counter-cyclical asset that does best in real terms when liquidity evaporates. At times however, there can be pro-cyclical demand when equity, commodity, and gold prices are all rising strongly, and liquidity is more than abundant.



In short, gold is a commodity, but it is more reflective of its monetary value than its commodity value (i.e. used as jewelry and industrial demand).






FIAT MONEY (SUPPLY OF MONEY & CREDIT)

In our modern day fiat money system with its fractional reserves banking systems and free-floating paper currencies, gold is the only form of money safe from the depredations of central bankers. It therefore serves in the widest sense as a barometer of confidence in this central bank administered system.



Considering that the US dollar has lost about 97% of its value against gold since the Federal Reserve has been in business, one can conclude that confidence in fiat money has been waning rather precipitously over time. This trend is certain to remain a one-way street over the long term, with occasional fluctuations as confidence in paper (or digital) money waxes and wanes.






MyView



Money is the medium used for the exchange of goods and services.



Gold is use as jewelry and industry used and also used as a medium of exchange of goods and services. So gold is not always a commodity, but it also has monetary demand as used by central banks before 1971.



Fiat Money is also medium of exchange, but replaced gold in 1971. US dollar was forced to be used as the "medium of exchange" as a result of its power post world war two. The major difference is USA can print fiat money, as long as they can creat a demand for it (used for international trade, use for purchase of oil, used by IMF to help the countries in debt) US dollar, for the right or wrong reason, become the "medium of exchange" for the world, after replacing British sterling after the world war II.



Let just say, in this world, there is two types of "medium of exchange" accepted by the world, i.e. one is GOLD and the other is US dollar. (it can be Euro, Yen, Yuan or others). The only different, one can expand fiat money as much as they can via central banks. As long as the world business has confidence on the fiat money, there is value to it. Confidence, whether by voluntary or by force is debatable.



As usual, the central banks (with the blessing of governments), manipulated this printing machine as a POWERFUL tool. Hence, over the last 70 over years, US dollar has loss almost 97% of its value against gold, due to creation of CREDIT or DEBT (so is other currencies).


Now, the US dollar is in derivatives now, i.e. monopoly money, or as debt (junk bonds). Could be in trillions. When the monopoly money created turn BAD, it will implode, i.e. evaporated. Example, when a bank gives a loan for a person to buy shares, and when share price drop, this person goes bankrupt, and it become a NPL in the bank. So it is wipe off, when such an amount is too huge, the Fed will print money to bailout the bank, and the rest of the citizens will suffer, because, taxpayers has to pay for it (although it is suppose to be borne by the bankers). That is what we call it privatise the profit and socialise the debt.



Hence, my conclusion would be, in the future, a lot of this credit will implode or turn bad, and the taxpayers will pay for it until they revolt (i.e. sack the government for making this mistake). So, when such thing happen, trillions will be wipe off fiat money will be wipe off the earth, which already went into properties, commodities, oil, precious metals etc.



Each dollar created or each fiat money created must be borne by either the issuer or the taxpayer, hence, all asset class will deflate and the US dollar will move up.



I really hope I am wrong in this, as not many is aware of this because the consequences will be a world deflation and depression, sadly. Every dollar created must be accounted for, either by the government or its taxpayers, at times, both. Just look at USA, the taxpayers is paying the sin for the Wall Street.


It is really a mess, created by the governments. Most taxpayers have to pay for it, that is sad, but that is a reality.

SOS Who control the world?


Whoever control the printing machine and oil, control the world.

In the ancient eastern world, it is call loan shark, in the western world, it is called investment bankers.

The best innovation that US of A for the last 40 years, cannot be denied is not iPhone or MacBook, it is called DERIVATIVES. It is one of the most unregulated legalized institution in the world. PIMCO called it Shadow Money-Lending System, i.e. can create debt out of thin air, CDO, CLO, CDS, Swap, MBS, etc and of course, receive interest on that. Debt created out of thin air is classified as asset in their books and receive interest revenue. For more details on derivatives, you can read Mr Buffett by Janet Tavacoli.

If we dig further, we will know why derivatives is called the weapon of mass destruction by Mr Warren Buffett. Investigate the following

  1. LTCM
  2. Enron
  3. Lehman
  4. Bear Stern
They are only the tip of the iceberg. The notional value for derivatives is about USD582 trillion. Of course, one may argue, it contra off each other, the net exposure to bankers is not significant. But the funny part, NOBODY can give us a figure, so, no point debate over it.




President Thomas Jefferson once said, if the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of currency, first by INFLATION, then by DEFLATION, the banks and the corporations which grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers founded.


MyView

Thomas Jefferson have the foresight. USD already depreciated 97% since 1971, after the paper money is created, now, what next DEFLATION? Currency depreciation mainly derive from supply of money (not much compared with CREDIT) & CREDIT or Debt (digital fiat money). I believe, when Debt creation comes to an end, Deflation will follow, then Depression. Unless there can find another asset to print.

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

SOS Secret of Warrent Buffett

2008 + Warren Buffett + Goldman Sachs = Unethical

2011 + David Sokol + Lobrizol deal = Unethical

2008 + Warren Buffett + Using Derivatives = Unethical

Accounting issue + SEC query + CFO Berkshaire Hathaway = Unethical

1.0 Transparent Issue & Insider Trading Issue

I would have no way of knowing for certain that Sokol would bring the opportunity to Warren Buffett. I would have no way of knowing for sure whether Berkshire Hathaway would invest in Lubrizol. But if I bought shares in Lubrizol the next day, I would expect that the Citi banker would be investigated by the SEC for passing along insider information, and I would be investigated for trading based on insider information.*

Yet David Sokol, who bought shares in Lubrizol the day after his meeting with Citi's bankers, told CNBC he did nothing inappropriate. His actions were absolutely inappropriate -- front-running is an offense for which a banker or investment banker would be fired.

Berkshire Hathaway has a bigger problem than Sokol's actions. Its reputation has revolved around the lip-service paid by Warren Buffett to a high standard of corporate governance. His actions and attitude to this matter raise serious questions for the future of Berkshire Hathaway. The moral tone set at the top is now being publicly questioned as well as his seeming support of Sokol's actions.

2.0 Accounting Issue

"Despite [the Chief Financial Officer's] objection, the company recorded $938 million in impairment charges in the fourth quarter to reflect declines in shares of Swiss Reinsurance Co., U.S. Bankcorp and pharmaceutical firm Sanofi Aventis S.A."

"Berkshire Wrote Down Stocks After SEC Query," by Erik Holm, Wall Street Journal, March 29, 2011.

The SEC and the financial press may not have noticed that Berkshire Hathaway had the last word: "such losses that are included in earnings are offset by a corresponding credit to other comprehensive income."** Note added April 3: As David Merkel and a commenter have noted, there must be this adjustment to avoid double counting; it is a non-issue other than the original point that Berkshire resisted taking the impairments as a charge to net income. Berkshire had the last word when it came to Kraft and Wells Fargo, two other stocks. Wells is of particular interest since its value has long been touted by Warren Buffett, particularly at the 2009 shareholder meeting. Older purchases have gains, but recent purchases have unrealized losses. There may have been reluctance to highlight the latter by taking the write-down, particularly after the controversy over a September 2008 favorable tax rule implemented by Treasury, I.R.S. Notice 2008-83, to facilitate the Wells/Wachovia merger. Only Congress has the authority to do that, and it was repealed in 2009.

Berkshire Hathaway is a conglomerate, and the nature of accounting for conglomerates is opaque and messy. Warren Buffett's reputation has been crucial to Berkshire Hathaway's perceived value. Investors may now challenge their previous perceptions.


MyView

When it come to business, I guess there is no ETHICAL in the equation. No wonder the elderly always tell us not to judge a book by its cover. Lots of things we look from the surface, and the truth is far from what is the perception. Tiger Wood just do it.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

SOS Melbourne home property prices plunge















From Herald Sun, 18 April 2011



MELBOURNE'S property bubble is bursting, with $400 a day wiped off the average house price in the past three months.


After peaking at $601,000 late last year, the median price has fallen to $565,000 - down $36,000.


The 6 per cent slump is the biggest quarterly drop in more than two years and one of the biggest the Real Estate Insititute of Victoria has recorded since the height of the global financial crisis.
It has raised hopes for buyers desperately trying to break into the market and will create speculation over whether a crash is coming.


REIV chief executive Enzo Raimondo said that although it was normal for prices to ease at the start of the year, it was clear the market had turned after an astonishing period of runaway growth.


"The honeymoon for sellers is over," he said.



MyView


Steve Keen will be happy, as his prediction finally comes true, after a couple of years of course. Well, he may argue, he can get it much cheaper later, as real property is a long term investment. He got a point there. Other than buying for own use and lock in low rates now, it may not be a good idea to speculate on properties in Australia.


One thing about these experts on bubbles like Steve Keen, Michael Shedlock and James Chanos or even Andy Xie, they are a couple of years EARLY. I suppose you can spot the bubble, but not easy to know when it will burst.


















The music will stop soon.

Monday, April 18, 2011

SOS Why Dow crashed as much as 220 points?


At the opening of 18 April 2011,


NEW YORK: US stocks slid at the open on Monday after Standard & Poor's downgraded the credit outlook for the United States to negative. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 177.25 points, or 1.44 percent, to 12,164.58. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 19.35 points, or 1.47 percent, to 1,300.33. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 41.14 points, or 1.49 percent, to 2,723.51. The rating agency said it believes there's a risk US policymakers may not reach agreement on how to address the country's long-term fiscal pressures


MyView


The cause, basically can be described in two words, Credit Creation over the last 3 decades. Thanks to the derivatives, credit creation is brought to a new level. When credit implode, Fed can't do much about it, can delay it, but cannot stop it.


Most will say US will hyper-inflate their way out of debt. Can they succeed? Can they fight credit with more credit? They can reflate, but it is doubtful they will fall into hyperinflation. The debt implosion (USD65-100t) is far greater than the printing machine.

Sunday, April 17, 2011

SOS Why we should jail the Wall Street fella?





A friend of mine said:


"I always hold to the principle that one's capability is important to ensure survival be it rain or shine ... but it makes me wonder whether I am too naive to hold to such belief. It appears in this changing era, those that are good in politics survive better."


MyView


"Changing era" + "good in politics survive better". Religions' world taught, the good will prevail. But in real life, not necessary. look at the video above. Some eastern religion said, our life is created base on our karmic retribution. The Tao believe there the existance of ying and yang. the good and bad. Have a look, how the Wall Street get away. How is our corrupted Malaysian politician get away. It happens in history, it happens now, more rampant perhaps.


So how?


Saturday, April 16, 2011

SOS Can BRICS replace USA?

BRICS economy is about USD12T, USA is USD15T.

World GDP perhaps about USD65T.

China ownes USD3T of US dollar reserve, or 30% of US dollar reserves of the world.

USD household debt over household income is about 120%, Singapore is about 100%, guess what is Malaysia, 134%.

The monster in the room is credit creation. Last 5 years, residential loan in Malaysia has doubled from RM98b to RM218b (source: The Star). Easy credit leads to ineffective allocation of resources.

MyView

PIIGS are suffering now. USA is postponing it. There is basically no way out, just let the credit implode. Who says the bigger the bank, the lesser the risk? The bigger the bank, the bigger the problem. Bigger banks does not reduce risk, it is a myth. Stop the merger, or it monster will grow until it is too big to fail status.

Friday, April 15, 2011

SOS Why Bill Gross shorted Uncle Sam?


Few weeks ago Bill Gross sold all US Govt Treasuries in the Total Return Fund.

April 11, he shorted the US Govt Treasuries (USD7 bil)

Total funds manage by PIMCO is about USD1.2 trillion.

His Total Return Fund size is about USD236 trillion.

Bill Gross not happy with QEs.

MyView

Something is brewing. Like what Charles Nenner said, yield will increase over the next few decades, of course, according to his bold yield cycle analysis.

Thursday, April 14, 2011

SOS Ben Bernanke has everyone fooled?


Why Ben Bernanke has almost everyone fooled?
  1. Many share the believe that Ben Bernanke drop money from helicopter.
  2. As a result, most people sees under his leadership is excessive inflation.
  3. So, majority virtually prepared for severe inflation.
  4. To prepare for inflation, investor will pour money into commodities, stocks, precious metal or properties on the pretext, money will lose its value due to excessive printing.
  5. That is exactly Bernanke got everyone to believe, the US government and Fed is trying to inflate out of their debt.
This is what majority believe, at least it sound logical, isn't it?

How can the majority be wrong this time?

On the CONTRARY, the majority is wrong, and here is why.

  1. US Government and the Fed derives their powers from two sources, one is TAXATION and the other, its ability to BORROW or create new CREDIT or DEBT.
  2. The Fed would commit suicide if it were to hyper-inflate, because federal government bonds are reserve of the FED (which is privately owned) and federal government bonds are the reserve of the FED.
Thanks to the magical wand, Ben Bernanke had everyone thought that Fed has the power to alter the course of US economy by printing or stimulating or quantitative easing. And hence, the confidence are BACK for the mislead reason.

Von Mises said "There is NO MEANS of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion." "No Means" which means nobody can do anything about it, including the Fed.

Dollar denominate debt is about USD65 trillion in 2010 (excluding social care and medicare). Worldwide wealth is USD160T, gold is about USD7T (half held by central bank). Worldwide derivatives is about 600T.

MyView

  1. 1980 - how can gold go down with all this inflation?
  2. 2000 - how can stock go down in a New Economy?
  3. 2004 - how can US dollar goes up when we have this huge trade deficit?
  4. 2005 - how can oil go down when world production has peaked all time?
  5. 2009 - how can we have deflation? Bernanke won't allow it
There is no point debating over the inflation or deflation outcome of the whole episode, but it does change your wealth position. Should we read it correctly, then we can benefit from it. On the contrary, should we read it wrongly, our hard earn money will be wipe out, not because we did not work hard, because we really do not know. And it is complicated, and not easy to solve the puzzle.

Have some thought about it. Inflation is created by credit creation. When credit reach its peak, i.e. credit contraction will come, and it is just started. Whichever way we look at it, either inflation or deflation, they share the same conclusion, the majority is doomed. But, if we got it correctly, we can protect ourselves.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

SOS sPAIN will be next


"Ireland does not have the severe structural problems of some Mediterranean countries. Over the last 18 months, we have taken many of the measures that Greeks are only beginning to take. The risk of contagion from the Greece fallout does not extend to Ireland." (Bloomberg)


Iceland isn't Dubai."

"Greece isn't Iceland."

"Ireland isn't Greece."

And most recently, "Portugal isn't Ireland."


(From Elliott Wave website)

MyView The charts above almost identical. We almost can predict the next major news in Europe, "sPAIN isn't Portugal". Ooops, it should be PIIIGS instead. First we have PIG, then PIIG, then PIIGS and lastly PIIIGS. History may not repeat itself but it ryhmes. Could this be the catalyst for US dollar to reverse against Euro? Gary Shilling thinks that it should be 1:1. And base on his track records, he is almost right all the time, not timing wise but his call I think we left out the country of Pizza, ITALY. Then what? Europe?

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

SOS Deflate, Deleverage & Depression vs Crash, Collapse,

When the world is over leverage - it need to deleverage

When assets price is inflated by easy money - it need to deflate

When resources is misallocated for a long time - it will go under depression

When the assets bubble reach its peak - it need crash

When share markets goes too high due to US carry trade - it need to collapse

The world has been printing lots of money over the last 3 years, USA, Europe, China, Japan, Asia Pacific, Australia etc. The consequence is boom and then bust.

Leverage

Rule number one business is not to over leverage. One you overleverage, you don't leverage more to pay for you old leverage. You need to deleverage. World leverage gone crazy over the last decade, especially, last two years.

Assets inflated

Look at oil, gold and silver and stocks and soft commodities. All reach new highs, on what grown, the problem in 2007/8. Common sense tell us that the world has too much debt, when you reduce interest to zero and start the stimulus programs, you know that these are not the solution, these are ways to defer the TRUTH, i.e. major deflation

Allocation of resources

USA is over consume
China over produce and over construct
Euro/US have too much derivatives
Brics is over produce for China, who overbuild and over construct
Properties around the world is over inflated by easy money
Commodities overplayed by US carry trade
Banks is bankrupted and continue to be given cheap money to gamble

Any major misallocation of resources over a long period will go through depression

MyView

Scary isn't it. Damn if you do and damn if you don't.

SOS Australia Home Sale Sink, Luxury unit sale for Half Cost

Figure1: Australia housing loans


AUCTION PRICE SOLD HALF THE COST AFTER


more than 18 months on the market, the luxury Riverview On March apartments finally went under the hammer yesterday — and about 140 people came to watch as they sold for a song.Valued at $650,000 to $700,000-plus each, four of the six units sold. They fetched $510,000, $320,000, $339,000 and $300,000.


HOUSING LOANS DROPPED TO 10 YEAR LOW BUYERS are deserting the housing market at a pace that threatens a slump in housing prices and a risk to the economic outlook.The number of new housing loans approved by the banks dropped 5.6 per cent to a 10-year low in February, after a similarly sharp drop in the previous month.


UNSOLD UNITS MOUNTS The buyer retreat comes as the stock of unsold houses mounts. Figures compiled by property analysts SQM Research show there are now 356,600 properties on the market, which is almost 50 per cent more than a year ago.


BUYER EXHAUSTION


Buyer Exhaustion - Pool of Greater Fools Runs OutAustralia is suffering from buyer exhaustion after the Australian government foolishly stimulated housing to stave off the last recession. Buyer exhaustion would have set in whether the Reserve Bank made that last rate hike or not. .Now what?Housing inventory is both huge and rising, few can afford homes, and those who can afford homes already have one (if not more).Simply put, the pool of greater fools has run out.


PARTY IS NOW OFFICIALLY OVER Please pay attention to those struggling retailers. Australian retail sales will collapse once the housing bubble bust pick up more steam. That collapse in retail sales will crucify banks that made poor commercial real estate loans and it will bankrupt store owners who paid too much for their stores.Look for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates. It will not matter when they do. It was one hall of a party Australia, but the party is now officially over.


Hells bells it took massive stimulus and silly bank loans to reach peak housing insanity in the US, in Australia, in China, in the UK, in Spain, in Ireland, and for that matter everywhere there was a housing bubble. (Source: Mike Shedlock)


MyView


Australia property bubble comes to an end. Speculators beware (not house owner), run now or get busted. This scenerio seems similar with many countries, only different is the degree and magnitude. In Malaysia, people actually feel "proud" when they did a "no money down" purchase. I like to reiterate what are the signs of bubble (not necessary burst immediately, may takes years):



  1. easy credit to speculators or DEVELOPERs

  2. prices increase significantly in a SHORT TIME

  3. bullish sentiment by all PARTICIPANTS and EXPERTS

  4. historical LOW INTEREST

ALSO thanks to government STIMULUS, great way of misallocation of resources.


WHAT ABOUT MALAYSIA


The cracks can be seen once there is/are



  1. contraction on housing loans and loans to developers (must monitor closely)

  2. auction price goes below reserve price

  3. housing inventory gradually peaking up

  4. housing affordibility reach historical high

  5. number of foreclosure increases

A month to month monitoring will be good. Sometimes the music stops because of DOMINO effects, again, due to CHANGE of SENTIMENT. Look at Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and sPAIN.


Loan in Malaysia for ressidential properties more than doubled in the last 5 years from 2005 to 2010 from RM98 bil to RM218 bil (figures from BNM).

Monday, April 11, 2011

SOS Where to puy your money 2011, Marc Faber



  1. Gold - careful at the current gold price expecting meaningful correction (2 points to consider, gold shares may be undervalue)

  2. Silver - also expected correction

  3. US Dollar Index - 75 (few years low is 71). Sentiment has been week against many other currencies, may rebound before it goes into zero intrinsic value

  4. Asia - economic boom, cost of inflation has gone up substantially. Hence, they look at stocks, properties and considering gold as another asset class.

  5. Stock market in USA - what drove - zero interest rate & QEs (going into equity and commodity)

  6. Ben is the murderer of the middle class of USA

  7. Civil unrest in USA - quite possible at one stage - cronyism

  8. If you have USD10m, 25% in real estate, 25% stocks, 25% gold and 25% (cash equivalent)

  9. Real estate - reasonable in USA at certain price

  10. Bye Bye

Sunday, April 10, 2011

SOS Taking a break.



It is time to take a break,

Reflect,

What is life all about,

Is it all about sentimentality

Looks like it


Make money, so our family has a more comfortable life

Make money, so that spouse can get their dream gift

Make money, so kids can enjoy better education

Make money, so to help others

Make money, so others would respect you more


Pretty much for sentimentality

Happy, comfort, desire, love, care, respect, health


MyView


Take a break, take things easy, relax, don't get so attached, improve virtues



SOS Tipping Point


The current market sentiment reminded me of 2008, when more than 90% were bullish on oil. It burst and came back. Could it be round 2? Similarly now gold went up almost 40% in less than 6 months, skyrocketting, yet to burst, could it be round 2? Share market (US) double since March 2009, will there be round 2? Grains prices goes up so high, could it be round 2? US dollar crash to new lows, could it be round 2? MyView All debts must be accounted for, or paid, either by the borrower, or the lender, or the government spread it to all taxpayers, which is what is happening. When this go to extreme, the taxpayer will revolt. But that does not change the fact that someone still have to bear the debt. It is either the borrower, lender, or government, or taxpayers, or all. Look at the Wall Street, over the past two years, their profits is back to 2007 high (USD80 bil) even though at one point they are in the verge of collapse in 2008. Thanks to the government, who eventually, goes to the taxpayers to share the burden and the bankers get another round of profit of USD43 billion. Taxpayers in USA are really being taken for a ride, round 2. No protection at all, when main street goes wrong, government don't bother, when wall street shake, bailout and stimulus. Whichever way you look at it, the mass has to suffer for the minority who take them for a ride, round 1 and round 2, until eventually the taxpayers awake.

Saturday, April 9, 2011

SOS Earnings Drive Stock price a myth?


Not all the time. I guess.

SOS Bullish sentiment



"Individual investors (AAII poll)—most bullish in six years Newsletter advisors (I.I. poll 20-week average)—most bullish in seven years Futures traders (trade-futures.com poll)—most bullish in four years Mutual fund managers (% cash)—most bullish ever Hedge fund managers (BoAML survey)—most bullish ever Economists (news-org polls)—unanimously bullish Top global strategists (three national year-ahead panels)—unanimously bullish Even most 'bears' on the economy are bullish on stocks because of inflation!"


"The number of investors with a bearish outlook plunged by more than a third in one week according to a widely followed investor survey released Wednesday, the largest amount of bears to throw in the towel in this poll since 2003."


MyView


Surely cannot be all the experts wrong at the same time, can they? Look at the Nasdaq, looks similar to today's S&P500. Is US dollar worst than Yen? Euro? Yuan? Sterling? Hard to say, everyone is printing.

SOS Mike Shedlock Says

  1. Prices of assets falling.
  2. Prices of consumer is barely falling.
  3. Value of debt in zombie bank in Japan has made Japanese bank cannot lent.
  4. Financial market inflated but they never fixed the economy.
  5. Relapsed is expected.
  6. Credit + money = money supply.
  7. Fed has increase the base money supply, into banks' reserve.
  8. Lending comes first and reserve comes second, Fannie Mae lent, value of loan crash, increase Fannie Mae reserve by Fed, but not reach borrower.
  9. We have USD40 trillion of bad debt out there and only a few trillion in the reserve
  10. Dump the dollar for Euro? Yen? Yuan? Sterling? Precious Metals?
  11. China credit increase 35%. Confident restore but not the actual economy.
  12. Long term interest rate in Japan is only 1%, USA is 3%. If Japan is 3%, they will go bankrupt.
  13. Gold is not a hedge against of inflation but against hyperinflation.
  14. Gold does well in deflation. Gold is prefer because lost of faith in debt/credit lose value
  15. Inflation due to malinvestment in China/Australia
  16. Solution, let home prices fall naturally, not artificially prop up.
  17. QE , goal of QE2, get bank lending, spur job, stabilize housing = all fail miserably = relating back the commodities and stock market (bubble)
  18. QE2, stimulate and speculate in commodities, looks like a success at the moment
  19. One think Ben has done, drive borrowing cost so low, corporate can role over debt and keep cash just in case crisis strike again.
  20. Expected in downgrade in debt and bank.
  21. Will be like Japan.
  22. Will be drift in and out of deflation & recession like Japan.
  23. Another crisis for another decade.
MyView

One of the few deflationist that recommend on gold, who sees that the value of other assets being deflate (house, stocks, bonds, other paper assets). He believe another crash is inevitable due to Fed prolong the imminent crash.

Friday, April 8, 2011

SOS Sell in April and Go Away!


According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the market has been strongest over the years from November 1 to April 30. That stretch of time has seen average returns of 9.2 percent from the Dow Jones Industrial Index since 1950 compared to an average loss of 1.2 percent from May through October. By this standard, the current surge in the markets that took off at the beginning of September 2010 is a good bit ahead of schedule.


Last two years this was proven wrong. So, can they prove for the third year?



MyView


Hmmm, hopefully. But be cautious.

SOS Record High!


Gold touch record high USD1,467 per oz.


Silver reach 31 year high at USD40.06 per oz.


Oil touch USD110 per barrel, new high since 2008.


Of course the main reasoning is Middle East & Money Printing, which is friendly for the precious metals and oil. OK, let just say if oil dropped back to USD95 per barrel, does the Middle East issue still stands. Sometimes it appears the reasoning is created to suit the price actions. The reasoning is always logical but not necessary correct.


Same with precious metals, the reasoning is also because of money printing fear. What happen if we assume gold and silver dropped back to about USD1000 and USD25 per oz respectively, would the reasoning still hold?


Price actions are determined by the crowd psychology or trends or cycle, which is harder to measure than the typical fundamental demand and supply equation. If we use demand and supply logic to explain the precious metals prices of going up, it is illogical, because it is a fact that supply exceeds demand (at the moment). So the movements in metals are not based on fundamental but the perception of the crowd in anticipation of an inflationary environment. So, what happen if the perception change, hence, price change.


How do we then trying to understand or measure perception. Well, we can use bullish and berish reading of up and down, volume, confidence index, VIX, analysts bullishness or berishness. At this point of time, nearly everone is BULLISH.


As usual, when bullishness reach its peak, it will reverse. The longer the bullishness, the higher the reversal.


MyView


What Jim Rogers advice is, never buy when prices is at peak. That is why he is long US dollar (for short term) because everyone else think US dollar will collapse. That does not make him right, but, his experience tell him so, because he does not mention any specific reason for his basis to long US dollar other than, when the scale is tilted on one end, it will revert to the other side. Perhaps, he may have strong basis, but he is keeping it to himself.


At the moment, it seems that oil, gold and silver are in for a super bull. Who will say otherwise, other than Charles Nenner, who thinks gold will correct to about USD1000.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

SOS Final Debate on Inflationist vs Deflationist



The answer is from the book, The Coming Deflation by C. V. Myers


"Ultimately, every penny of every debt must be paid, if not by the borrower, then by the lender"


MyView


The sad part about this statement is the taxpayers is paying for the sins of the Wall Street. The Wall St, in the last 2 years, 2009 and 2010 makes about USD80 billion profit, one third of total profit from NYSE and given out bonuses to those that screwed up the system USD43 billion. Thanks to Fed bailout and QEs.


Look at Japan today.

SOS Debate on China Properties Crash



Andy Xie has been saying bubble in China properties for more than a year. So is James Chanos.


Andy Xie has a 100% track record in spotting bubble, but not so much on the timing, while James Chanos, is the hedge fund manager that makes lots of money when he shorted Enron. He shorted China properties via HK and Australian shares, the main suppliers to China. I figured he will be shorting BHP.


Another guy worth mentioning is Gary Shilling thinks China export will drop, hence, bring along her BRICs partners which have been supplying her with tonnes of ore, copper, crude oil, coal etc. And of course, he also believe China is in for a hard landing.



MyView


All 3 of them have good track records, but not very accurate on timing. However, most of their major calls materialized. Their arguements are based on fundamental analysis of demand and supply of properties. James Chanos pictured China as Dubai 1000 times. I believe it is more like Japan, when it grow so fast in the late 80s like nothing will go wrong, it went wrong. Similar picture here with China.


So, hold your breath, this could be DOMINO number 1.