Friday, April 29, 2011
SOS Is the market rationale?
BDI is currently at 1254 and the peak is about 12,000 in early 2008.
Don't bother trying to use fundamental to explain the financial markets, it is emotional, not rational.
Oil price goes up, share market should drop right?
BDI indicates the economic activity right, why market up when economic activity is down?
MyView
I am not saying fundamental is not useful, or technical, for the matter, economic cycles, all are important tools to evaluate the stocks. However, the price and volume of the stocks is the behavior of all participants, from experts and non-experts. Whichever way we analyse it, they follow certain mentality, called HERD MENTALITY. Never change, never will, period.
Well, the funny part, there is always 2 schools of thoughts (at least) in evaluating the financial markets. There must be something lacking in the books, economics is like a mysterious subject. It is neither science nor art.
The most followed guru in investment in shares is non other than Warren Buffett. But lately, he has been tainted by his involvement with Goldman Sachs and Sokol. Like he said, it takes years to acquire the reputation but take seconds to destroy it.
SOS Can US sustain without QE3?
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
SOS FIsher's Theory of Deflation Depression
(1) Debt liquidation leads to distress selling and to
(2) Contraction of deposit currency, as bank loans are paid off, and to a slowing down of velocity of circulation. This contraction of deposits and of their velocity, precipitated by distress selling, causes
(3) A fall in the level of prices, in other words, a swelling of the dollar. Assuming, as above stated, that this fall of prices is not interfered with by reflation or otherwise, there must be
(4) A still greater fall in the net worths of business, precipitating bankruptcies and
(5) A like fall in profits, which in a “capitalistic,” that is, a private-profit society, leads the concerns which are running at a loss to make
(6) A reduction in output, in trade and in employment of labor. These losses, bankruptcies and unemployment, lead to
(7) Hoarding and slowing down still more the velocity of circulation.
The above eight changes cause (9) Complicated disturbances in the rates of interest, in particular, a fall in the nominal, or money, rates and a rise in the real, or commodity, rates of interest.
(don't ask me where is cause #8, it is extracted from www.londonbanker.blogspot.com)
MyView
Whatever that is over expanded will contract (we do not need Paul Krugman, Roubini, Jim Rogers or Fisher to tell us that).
The credit expansion since the 1930s till 2010 in USA, almost 70 years is called OVER EXPANDED in credit (not printing of physical money) and it had come to a very dangerous level that any financial ratio can measure.
In 'pop' in 2008, and the Fed and US Government did what it is suppose to do, REFLATE the economy, or they will lose their jobs. So, 2009, 2010 and 2011, they have used almost all tricks they know: Bailouts, Stimulus, QEs, changing accounting policies, zero interest, mismanagement of regulators, rating agencies. How long can this goes on, until their sovereign debt pop?
And, if they are 'cunningly clever', they may buy lenders may buy themselves another year, then, comes DEFLATION (i.e. credit contracts).
So there you go (for fun only) :
Credit Creation - INFLATION (1970 to 2008)
Intervention - REFLATION (2009 to 2011/2)
Credit Contraction - DEFLATION (2013 to 2015)
after which
War - later on after war, HYPER INFLATION (2016 onwards)
I hope I got the sequence right. A lot of experts jump straight into Hyperinflation, which what USA hope for, paying back the debtor with toilet paper, which they wish.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
SOS How is Malaysia doing statistically?
SOS Life is getting harder in Malaysia?
Food (p.a.) 1500 4500(3X)
Petron (R97 per litre RM) 1.00 2.70(2.7X)
Going backwards
What went wrong with Malaysia?Authoritarian governments like Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea can still generate economic progress and uplift the standard of living of their citizens so what went wrong with Malaysia? Do they have something we lack or is it due to something we have that burdened us?If there is any one reason which is the mother of all reasons for Malaysia’s lacklustre performance it is racial policies which has replaced meritocracy, encouraged rent seeking practices, resulted in economic inefficiency and distortion, pulled down education standards, caused a brain drain and become a vehicle for wastage and massive corruption.
Where to, Malaysia?
Sunday, April 24, 2011
SOS Genocide in USA
- Genocide on the American citizens.
- Collapse of the US Treasuries.
Fiat Money is paired. US-Euro, US-Yen, US-Yuan, Euro-Yen, Euro-Yuan. It is basically a tug of wall. All of them has been printing since the crisis of 2008. I believe all of these currency will have a zig zag pattern against each others, due to the fact of credit implosion at a different time.
What the traditional money like GOLD. All of them will be depreciated against gold eventually, in the long run, like what the US dollar, which has dropped more than 97% in the last 70 years. However, there will be a catch, how would any of them collapsed? It had to collapsed against another currency.
So, one can argue that, if your rating is cut, hence, the confidence issue will arise. So, let us say, USA's AAA rating is cut to just an A (we know it is worst than junk bond), so it will force everyone to dump US dollar. However, the unfortunate part is that when you dump a currency, you will have to be against another currency, what would you buy then, Yen? Sterling? Euro? or perhaps gold? Brilliant idea, since gold is real money (with limited supply) why not everyone just convert their US dollar into gold. But at the moment, gold is only worth on paper USD7 trillion and world's wealth in about USD125 trillion. So, gold price will have to explode, from US1500 to US15000 per oz?
Will it be possible, then everyone will trade with GOLD? In such a case, what about Euro, will it shoot up to the moon, since US dollar collapse. The next question we ask, is Europe economically more sound than USA? They are not far off.
So, how would we explain the Collapse of US dollar. We do know, the end game that US dollar will be a toilet paper, so is Euro and so is Yen.
MyView
Problem with experts nowadays, they only explain one side of the coin. And of course, some hide the other side of the coin. But the world has not really seen how a credit implosion looks like, Japan experience it for the last 15 years, they are still in denial.
We know that US have trillions of bad debt that is yet to implode, what will happen if it burst? This is a trillion dollar questions. But Thomas Jefferson did said about the credit creation, first it will cause INFLATION and ultimately DEFLATION. The question now is inflation comes about from credit creation, and deflation comes about from credit implosion. Which is the like scenerio going forward?
Saturday, April 23, 2011
SOS Illusions and Delusions
Friday, April 22, 2011
SOS Why Dollar will Crash
Thursday, April 21, 2011
SOS What is the value of Money & GOLD?
SOS Who control the world?
Whoever control the printing machine and oil, control the world.
In the ancient eastern world, it is call loan shark, in the western world, it is called investment bankers.
The best innovation that US of A for the last 40 years, cannot be denied is not iPhone or MacBook, it is called DERIVATIVES. It is one of the most unregulated legalized institution in the world. PIMCO called it Shadow Money-Lending System, i.e. can create debt out of thin air, CDO, CLO, CDS, Swap, MBS, etc and of course, receive interest on that. Debt created out of thin air is classified as asset in their books and receive interest revenue. For more details on derivatives, you can read Mr Buffett by Janet Tavacoli.
If we dig further, we will know why derivatives is called the weapon of mass destruction by Mr Warren Buffett. Investigate the following
- LTCM
- Enron
- Lehman
- Bear Stern
President Thomas Jefferson once said, if the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of currency, first by INFLATION, then by DEFLATION, the banks and the corporations which grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers founded.
MyView
Thomas Jefferson have the foresight. USD already depreciated 97% since 1971, after the paper money is created, now, what next DEFLATION? Currency depreciation mainly derive from supply of money (not much compared with CREDIT) & CREDIT or Debt (digital fiat money). I believe, when Debt creation comes to an end, Deflation will follow, then Depression. Unless there can find another asset to print.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
SOS Secret of Warrent Buffett
2011 + David Sokol + Lobrizol deal = Unethical
2008 + Warren Buffett + Using Derivatives = Unethical
Accounting issue + SEC query + CFO Berkshaire Hathaway = Unethical
1.0 Transparent Issue & Insider Trading Issue
I would have no way of knowing for certain that Sokol would bring the opportunity to Warren Buffett. I would have no way of knowing for sure whether Berkshire Hathaway would invest in Lubrizol. But if I bought shares in Lubrizol the next day, I would expect that the Citi banker would be investigated by the SEC for passing along insider information, and I would be investigated for trading based on insider information.*
Yet David Sokol, who bought shares in Lubrizol the day after his meeting with Citi's bankers, told CNBC he did nothing inappropriate. His actions were absolutely inappropriate -- front-running is an offense for which a banker or investment banker would be fired.
Berkshire Hathaway has a bigger problem than Sokol's actions. Its reputation has revolved around the lip-service paid by Warren Buffett to a high standard of corporate governance. His actions and attitude to this matter raise serious questions for the future of Berkshire Hathaway. The moral tone set at the top is now being publicly questioned as well as his seeming support of Sokol's actions.
2.0 Accounting Issue
"Despite [the Chief Financial Officer's] objection, the company recorded $938 million in impairment charges in the fourth quarter to reflect declines in shares of Swiss Reinsurance Co., U.S. Bankcorp and pharmaceutical firm Sanofi Aventis S.A."
"Berkshire Wrote Down Stocks After SEC Query," by Erik Holm, Wall Street Journal, March 29, 2011.
The SEC and the financial press may not have noticed that Berkshire Hathaway had the last word: "such losses that are included in earnings are offset by a corresponding credit to other comprehensive income."** Note added April 3: As David Merkel and a commenter have noted, there must be this adjustment to avoid double counting; it is a non-issue other than the original point that Berkshire resisted taking the impairments as a charge to net income. Berkshire had the last word when it came to Kraft and Wells Fargo, two other stocks. Wells is of particular interest since its value has long been touted by Warren Buffett, particularly at the 2009 shareholder meeting. Older purchases have gains, but recent purchases have unrealized losses. There may have been reluctance to highlight the latter by taking the write-down, particularly after the controversy over a September 2008 favorable tax rule implemented by Treasury, I.R.S. Notice 2008-83, to facilitate the Wells/Wachovia merger. Only Congress has the authority to do that, and it was repealed in 2009.
Berkshire Hathaway is a conglomerate, and the nature of accounting for conglomerates is opaque and messy. Warren Buffett's reputation has been crucial to Berkshire Hathaway's perceived value. Investors may now challenge their previous perceptions.
MyView
When it come to business, I guess there is no ETHICAL in the equation. No wonder the elderly always tell us not to judge a book by its cover. Lots of things we look from the surface, and the truth is far from what is the perception. Tiger Wood just do it.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
SOS Melbourne home property prices plunge
The 6 per cent slump is the biggest quarterly drop in more than two years and one of the biggest the Real Estate Insititute of Victoria has recorded since the height of the global financial crisis.
It has raised hopes for buyers desperately trying to break into the market and will create speculation over whether a crash is coming.
REIV chief executive Enzo Raimondo said that although it was normal for prices to ease at the start of the year, it was clear the market had turned after an astonishing period of runaway growth.
"The honeymoon for sellers is over," he said.
Monday, April 18, 2011
SOS Why Dow crashed as much as 220 points?
Sunday, April 17, 2011
SOS Why we should jail the Wall Street fella?
A friend of mine said:
"I always hold to the principle that one's capability is important to ensure survival be it rain or shine ... but it makes me wonder whether I am too naive to hold to such belief. It appears in this changing era, those that are good in politics survive better."
MyView
"Changing era" + "good in politics survive better". Religions' world taught, the good will prevail. But in real life, not necessary. look at the video above. Some eastern religion said, our life is created base on our karmic retribution. The Tao believe there the existance of ying and yang. the good and bad. Have a look, how the Wall Street get away. How is our corrupted Malaysian politician get away. It happens in history, it happens now, more rampant perhaps.
So how?
Saturday, April 16, 2011
SOS Can BRICS replace USA?
World GDP perhaps about USD65T.
China ownes USD3T of US dollar reserve, or 30% of US dollar reserves of the world.
USD household debt over household income is about 120%, Singapore is about 100%, guess what is Malaysia, 134%.
The monster in the room is credit creation. Last 5 years, residential loan in Malaysia has doubled from RM98b to RM218b (source: The Star). Easy credit leads to ineffective allocation of resources.
MyView
PIIGS are suffering now. USA is postponing it. There is basically no way out, just let the credit implode. Who says the bigger the bank, the lesser the risk? The bigger the bank, the bigger the problem. Bigger banks does not reduce risk, it is a myth. Stop the merger, or it monster will grow until it is too big to fail status.
Friday, April 15, 2011
SOS Why Bill Gross shorted Uncle Sam?
Few weeks ago Bill Gross sold all US Govt Treasuries in the Total Return Fund.
April 11, he shorted the US Govt Treasuries (USD7 bil)
Total funds manage by PIMCO is about USD1.2 trillion.
His Total Return Fund size is about USD236 trillion.
Bill Gross not happy with QEs.
MyView
Something is brewing. Like what Charles Nenner said, yield will increase over the next few decades, of course, according to his bold yield cycle analysis.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
SOS Ben Bernanke has everyone fooled?
Why Ben Bernanke has almost everyone fooled?
- Many share the believe that Ben Bernanke drop money from helicopter.
- As a result, most people sees under his leadership is excessive inflation.
- So, majority virtually prepared for severe inflation.
- To prepare for inflation, investor will pour money into commodities, stocks, precious metal or properties on the pretext, money will lose its value due to excessive printing.
- That is exactly Bernanke got everyone to believe, the US government and Fed is trying to inflate out of their debt.
How can the majority be wrong this time?
On the CONTRARY, the majority is wrong, and here is why.
- US Government and the Fed derives their powers from two sources, one is TAXATION and the other, its ability to BORROW or create new CREDIT or DEBT.
- The Fed would commit suicide if it were to hyper-inflate, because federal government bonds are reserve of the FED (which is privately owned) and federal government bonds are the reserve of the FED.
Von Mises said "There is NO MEANS of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion." "No Means" which means nobody can do anything about it, including the Fed.
Dollar denominate debt is about USD65 trillion in 2010 (excluding social care and medicare). Worldwide wealth is USD160T, gold is about USD7T (half held by central bank). Worldwide derivatives is about 600T.
MyView
- 1980 - how can gold go down with all this inflation?
- 2000 - how can stock go down in a New Economy?
- 2004 - how can US dollar goes up when we have this huge trade deficit?
- 2005 - how can oil go down when world production has peaked all time?
- 2009 - how can we have deflation? Bernanke won't allow it
Have some thought about it. Inflation is created by credit creation. When credit reach its peak, i.e. credit contraction will come, and it is just started. Whichever way we look at it, either inflation or deflation, they share the same conclusion, the majority is doomed. But, if we got it correctly, we can protect ourselves.
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
SOS sPAIN will be next
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
SOS Deflate, Deleverage & Depression vs Crash, Collapse,
When assets price is inflated by easy money - it need to deflate
When resources is misallocated for a long time - it will go under depression
When the assets bubble reach its peak - it need crash
When share markets goes too high due to US carry trade - it need to collapse
The world has been printing lots of money over the last 3 years, USA, Europe, China, Japan, Asia Pacific, Australia etc. The consequence is boom and then bust.
Leverage
Rule number one business is not to over leverage. One you overleverage, you don't leverage more to pay for you old leverage. You need to deleverage. World leverage gone crazy over the last decade, especially, last two years.
Assets inflated
Look at oil, gold and silver and stocks and soft commodities. All reach new highs, on what grown, the problem in 2007/8. Common sense tell us that the world has too much debt, when you reduce interest to zero and start the stimulus programs, you know that these are not the solution, these are ways to defer the TRUTH, i.e. major deflation
Allocation of resources
USA is over consume
China over produce and over construct
Euro/US have too much derivatives
Brics is over produce for China, who overbuild and over construct
Properties around the world is over inflated by easy money
Commodities overplayed by US carry trade
Banks is bankrupted and continue to be given cheap money to gamble
Any major misallocation of resources over a long period will go through depression
MyView
Scary isn't it. Damn if you do and damn if you don't.
SOS Australia Home Sale Sink, Luxury unit sale for Half Cost
AUCTION PRICE SOLD HALF THE COST AFTER
more than 18 months on the market, the luxury Riverview On March apartments finally went under the hammer yesterday — and about 140 people came to watch as they sold for a song.Valued at $650,000 to $700,000-plus each, four of the six units sold. They fetched $510,000, $320,000, $339,000 and $300,000.
HOUSING LOANS DROPPED TO 10 YEAR LOW BUYERS are deserting the housing market at a pace that threatens a slump in housing prices and a risk to the economic outlook.The number of new housing loans approved by the banks dropped 5.6 per cent to a 10-year low in February, after a similarly sharp drop in the previous month.
UNSOLD UNITS MOUNTS The buyer retreat comes as the stock of unsold houses mounts. Figures compiled by property analysts SQM Research show there are now 356,600 properties on the market, which is almost 50 per cent more than a year ago.
BUYER EXHAUSTION
Buyer Exhaustion - Pool of Greater Fools Runs OutAustralia is suffering from buyer exhaustion after the Australian government foolishly stimulated housing to stave off the last recession. Buyer exhaustion would have set in whether the Reserve Bank made that last rate hike or not. .Now what?Housing inventory is both huge and rising, few can afford homes, and those who can afford homes already have one (if not more).Simply put, the pool of greater fools has run out.
PARTY IS NOW OFFICIALLY OVER Please pay attention to those struggling retailers. Australian retail sales will collapse once the housing bubble bust pick up more steam. That collapse in retail sales will crucify banks that made poor commercial real estate loans and it will bankrupt store owners who paid too much for their stores.Look for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates. It will not matter when they do. It was one hall of a party Australia, but the party is now officially over.
Hells bells it took massive stimulus and silly bank loans to reach peak housing insanity in the US, in Australia, in China, in the UK, in Spain, in Ireland, and for that matter everywhere there was a housing bubble. (Source: Mike Shedlock)
MyView
Australia property bubble comes to an end. Speculators beware (not house owner), run now or get busted. This scenerio seems similar with many countries, only different is the degree and magnitude. In Malaysia, people actually feel "proud" when they did a "no money down" purchase. I like to reiterate what are the signs of bubble (not necessary burst immediately, may takes years):
- easy credit to speculators or DEVELOPERs
- prices increase significantly in a SHORT TIME
- bullish sentiment by all PARTICIPANTS and EXPERTS
- historical LOW INTEREST
ALSO thanks to government STIMULUS, great way of misallocation of resources.
WHAT ABOUT MALAYSIA
The cracks can be seen once there is/are
- contraction on housing loans and loans to developers (must monitor closely)
- auction price goes below reserve price
- housing inventory gradually peaking up
- housing affordibility reach historical high
- number of foreclosure increases
A month to month monitoring will be good. Sometimes the music stops because of DOMINO effects, again, due to CHANGE of SENTIMENT. Look at Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and sPAIN.
Loan in Malaysia for ressidential properties more than doubled in the last 5 years from 2005 to 2010 from RM98 bil to RM218 bil (figures from BNM).
Monday, April 11, 2011
SOS Where to puy your money 2011, Marc Faber
- Gold - careful at the current gold price expecting meaningful correction (2 points to consider, gold shares may be undervalue)
- Silver - also expected correction
- US Dollar Index - 75 (few years low is 71). Sentiment has been week against many other currencies, may rebound before it goes into zero intrinsic value
- Asia - economic boom, cost of inflation has gone up substantially. Hence, they look at stocks, properties and considering gold as another asset class.
- Stock market in USA - what drove - zero interest rate & QEs (going into equity and commodity)
- Ben is the murderer of the middle class of USA
- Civil unrest in USA - quite possible at one stage - cronyism
- If you have USD10m, 25% in real estate, 25% stocks, 25% gold and 25% (cash equivalent)
- Real estate - reasonable in USA at certain price
- Bye Bye
Sunday, April 10, 2011
SOS Taking a break.
SOS Tipping Point
Saturday, April 9, 2011
SOS Bullish sentiment
SOS Mike Shedlock Says
- Prices of assets falling.
- Prices of consumer is barely falling.
- Value of debt in zombie bank in Japan has made Japanese bank cannot lent.
- Financial market inflated but they never fixed the economy.
- Relapsed is expected.
- Credit + money = money supply.
- Fed has increase the base money supply, into banks' reserve.
- Lending comes first and reserve comes second, Fannie Mae lent, value of loan crash, increase Fannie Mae reserve by Fed, but not reach borrower.
- We have USD40 trillion of bad debt out there and only a few trillion in the reserve
- Dump the dollar for Euro? Yen? Yuan? Sterling? Precious Metals?
- China credit increase 35%. Confident restore but not the actual economy.
- Long term interest rate in Japan is only 1%, USA is 3%. If Japan is 3%, they will go bankrupt.
- Gold is not a hedge against of inflation but against hyperinflation.
- Gold does well in deflation. Gold is prefer because lost of faith in debt/credit lose value
- Inflation due to malinvestment in China/Australia
- Solution, let home prices fall naturally, not artificially prop up.
- QE , goal of QE2, get bank lending, spur job, stabilize housing = all fail miserably = relating back the commodities and stock market (bubble)
- QE2, stimulate and speculate in commodities, looks like a success at the moment
- One think Ben has done, drive borrowing cost so low, corporate can role over debt and keep cash just in case crisis strike again.
- Expected in downgrade in debt and bank.
- Will be like Japan.
- Will be drift in and out of deflation & recession like Japan.
- Another crisis for another decade.
One of the few deflationist that recommend on gold, who sees that the value of other assets being deflate (house, stocks, bonds, other paper assets). He believe another crash is inevitable due to Fed prolong the imminent crash.