SOS This time is Different!

This time is different! That is what the consensus (on the financial) said on the USA economy.

The USDollar is a toilet paper. The amount of money they printed in QE1 and QE2 by the Fed amount to trilliion and floods the market, and it may turn into an ugly inflation or even hyper inflation. GOLD, according to the CEO of Goldcorp, he is confident that it will rise to USD5000 per oz in 3-4 years time. He even pointed out that recently central banks are net buyer of gold, pointing to China, India, Russia, Iran and other countries to realign their reserve portfolio. Government will try to maintain interest rate at all time low to allow their economy to nurse themselve back to the sustainable growth. Most fund managers believe that the stock market is the place to be in and has lots of room to move up as the economy improves. Crude oil will eventually revisit USD147 per barrel due to lack of supply and increase demand by China and India. Real Estate has stabilised and expected to move up soon.

The consensus of the following:

U.S. dollar - DOWN OR CRASH
Interest Rates - REMAIN LOW OR DOWN
Stock market - UP
Inflation - UP
Crude oil - NOWHERE TO GO BUT UP
U.S. Economy - UP
Real estate - UP

Well, one has to watch out when consensus thinking at its peak, the REVERSAL may happen. Could this be a signal of reversal. If you say otherwise, the concensus will bury you alive, especially at the moment. They will give you every single fundamental reason to support their arguement and validate that their CONSENSUS thinking of the market is absolutely CORRECT. Don't waste your time to argue otherwise.

MyView

We shall see. Lets do a little mathematic here, when was the last time you here 95% of the consensus will make lots of money and the 5% who do not listen to the consensus will go broke. Some may say, don't swim against the tide, you will be swept away. History has proven, it is the 5% that holds 95% of the wealth. What has change? Like a casino, what is the chance that a casino lose?

What about Malaysia? If you tell people real estate price will go down, you will have a hard time convincing them, each arguement you bring out, they will drown you with 5 other arguement that the prices will go up. So the CONSENSUS is clear. It is the same CONSENSUS on the Bursa Malaysia, it is undervalue, sure it will go up.

So the question is can the CONSENSUS be right for a long run? Or should it be rephrase, 95% of world population will eventually be rich, only 5% will be poor? The CONSENSUS will say, this time is different!