Monday, March 7, 2011

SOS Property BUBBLE

Some of the available measurements, but nothing is absolute:

  1. Rental Yield
  2. Household income over household debt
  3. House price over household income
  4. Unsold stocks available over housing supply
  5. Low interest for mortgage
  6. Easy credit from bankers
  7. Increase is too fast in short period
  8. Resulted from Carry Trade
  9. Most purchase now for own use
Some of the countries that the ratio is showing red flags (but not absolute)
  1. Australia
  2. Hong Kong
  3. China
  4. Canada
  5. Singapore
So, there is not really one measurement, and even it has reach a danger level, it may last a few years. One argument for China property is that the buyer pays 40 to 50% deposit, hence, has very strong holding power and also, so much money not reported being used to purchase properties, so it may last for a long while before the bubble "pop"

MyView

For every argument that a bubble is going to burst there is a counter argument that it will not burst. Besides evaluating the measurements, one of the important indicator is the UNITS UNSOLD trend and UNITS not occupied (which sometime not easy to obtained).

No comments: