Some interesting facts:
Japanese Yen vs US Dollar
1985 250
Dec 88 - Apr 90 123 - 158 Depreciate 30%
Apr 90 - Apr 95 158 - 84 Appreciate 46%
Apr 95 - Aug 98 84 - 145 Depreciate 72%
Aug 98 - Dec 99 145 - 103 Appreciate 29%
Dec 99 - Jul 07 103 - 122 Depreciate 18%
Jul 07 - Mac 11 122 - 81 Appreciate 34%
Mar 11 - 2012 81 - ?? According to Gary Shilling, it will depreciate
Gary Shilling think that it will appreciate because the trade surplus will shrink mainly due to the tsunami in March 11. Export will reduce, import on material will increase resulting from the reconstruction of Sendai and Fukushima, which is more than USD300 bil. Japan will need more USD for the import and the reconstruction.
MyView
It is an interesting trend from Japan prior and during the deflation era. During the Peak around mid 85 is about 375 yen per US dollar, lowest after the tsunami is about 74. But in between, there are so many UP, DOWN, UP, DOWN (resulting from trade surplus and stimulus as well as CARRY TRADE).
One wonder what will happen for the US dollar? Same fate as Japan?
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