Friday, March 25, 2011

SOS Stocks vs. hard assets, commodities and US housing

"The One Chart to Rule Them All"
Study the chart carefully, it may explain a story.

Facts for thoughts on important statistics:

USA private debt that may default: USD65 trillion
World derivatives: USD600 trillion (part of it may become bad)
Socialcare and medicare in USA : xxx trillion

MyView

Some other scary facts in China is the debt growth (including shadow banking) is about 35%. China is constructing about 30 billion sq ft, more than enough for each citizen to stay. Construction comprises 70% of their GDP, primarily explain that too much of fixed assets investments (buildings) which are not economically productive. There are many empty units and also, secondary sales is insignificant. Most will hold a few properties with the hope of prices will go up. When China slows, resources producing countries will suffer.

Economies do not move in a linear. That is almost for sure, but, consensus think in linear, that is the problem. Most economists misses in their forecast because they use the same tools to measure them, and their tools is almost unreliable. So this will continue, history does not repeat, but it ryhms.

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