SOS Weiss World Forum

13 August 2009

1. Economy moving from East to West



2. Europe economy is worst than USA



3. Europe is 6% to 7% of deficit of GDP, allowed by EU on 3%



4. China is growing, stess tested, and not into bubble in the near future



5. China is deregulating while the west is putting more regulation



6. Russia banks not as bad as Europe, and it will grow based on oil and gas and other commodities to satisfy the appetiet of China



7. USA treasuries issuing USD75 billion in last 3 days



8. China grow is a long long way to go



9. Medium term for Europe, similar to USA, feable recovery



10. China stock market went up 130% since Oct 2008



11. Brazil EWZ (ETF for Brazil) is up 60%, higher than China 40% FXI vs Dow Jones DJI of 3%



12. Stock market lead economy



13. Predict China 8-9% next 12 months


14. Chinese stimulus package goes straight into the economy (central bank), going into infrastructure, right now is 275,000 projects in China


15. Stimulus 14% of China GDP, about 2 trillion in cash, do not need to borrow


16. Reserve is USD2.13 trillion on Q2 of 2009 in China, still is growing

MyView

Everyone seems to putting most of their eggs into China due to many economic reasons. But I believe there are over expectations of China to save the world, there will be in for a shock! What about bubble in China property? What about bubble in share market? Everyone seems to be singing the same song, China will save the world. Everyone is talking about the potential in China about their strong consumptions, car per capita, hunger for raw materials, and infrastructure requirements etc.

Not much said about excess or overprice properties in China.

Not much said about the overvaluation of the stock markets.

Not much said about the strength of the banking system.

Not much said about the loss of exports.

Anyway, all seems to agree the increase in assets recently is due to liquidity.

Well, like what Robert Prechter said, the trends is set by the social mood.f

Ponder over these few questions:

1. It is 1886, project the American railroad industy


2. It is 1970, project the future of China


3. It is 1963, project the cost of medical care in U.S.


4. It is 1969, project the U.S. space program


5. It is 100 A.D., project the future of Roman civilisation