Sunday, August 9, 2009

SOS The Great RecoVery

Newsweek said "The recession is over"
CNBC said "The Great RecoVery"
Bloomberg said "The Worst is Over"

Well, this may last for a little while. The good old days are back. China had recovered 90%, USA recovered more than 50%, the rest of the world also recovered about 40 to 60%. Thank goodness, the worst is over. Yes, absolutely, if we buy into the numbers that are published lately by the main media.

Hold your breath, what about those who predicted this crisis got to say:-
  1. Jim Rogers said it is far from over
  2. Peter Schiff said recession may be over, the depression is just beginning
  3. Marc Faber said that China can predicts their GDP figures for 3 years in advance
  4. Gary Shilling said the recession is yet to end due to consumer savings is increasing and unemployment rate continue to rise cumulatively
  5. Robert Prechter said the this is just a bear market rally
  6. Max Keiser said the real economy underneath the figures are far more worst than you think
  7. Joseph Stiglitz said it is not over yet.
  8. Hary Dent said we are getting into the Depression Ahead
  9. Martin Sweiss said this rally in norm in a great depression
  10. Gerald Celente said we are deceived by the Wall Street
MyView

Well, like how the Americans was fooled for almost 20 years that the growth that came from consumption and debt, this bailout and stimulus will not fool them for so long because the underlying fundamental of the economy is deteriorating daily. What can I said, enjoy the party while the lights is still on. Once the light is off, and the fire began, everyone will panic and rush for the emergency door, and then we will realise that there are no emergency door in the disco, they will be lots of casualty.

My point would be, we are either getting into a deflationary depression or hyperinflationary depression. We can argue until the cows come home on this, but, if you read correctly both roads lead to Depression 2.0

My take will be deflationary comes first then hyper inflationary comes later, of course, some will said otherwise. Well, everyone's opinion is based on facts and figures that they get from different sources, hence, different results.

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