- US dollar is going to go up;
- Stocks all over the world is going to drop significantly;
- Commodities price will drop;
He has been quite accurately over the last few years and his explanation is the most logical one vs the other experts like Peter Schiff, Marc Faber & Jim Rogers, who are the proponents of the hyperinflation depression. All of them are right on their own analysis based on the data and facts they used, it is only the timing, timeframe they are investing, risk profile and expectations that makes the different.
Robert Prechter explains about long term trends in various asset classes i.e. stocks, real estates, commodities, gold, currencies and uses Elliot Wave principles to forecast the trends, and so far has been spot on, while
Jim Rogers an investor that spot trends of asset class, and invest for really long term, say 1o to 20 years, hence he is right to say commodities will go up looking at the current fundamentals of commodities required by the China and India.
Although Peter Schiff is very worry about hyperinflation, he may be right, but could be a few year early. His views that in the long run, US dollar and its economy will tank under the burden of dept and printing of money, so he recommend gold, investment in stocks outside US (worry about the collapse) and focus on dividend stocks, commodities stocks in Australia, infratructure stocks in China (railroad, solar energy, beverage is China).
Similarly in the same camp, Marc Faber says the Zimbawae inflation will happen in USA in few years or even 5 to 1o years time and he favour long term investment in gold and other commodities, as well as agricultural and commodities in Asia Pacific but he did warn about China bubble in stocks.
Meanwhile, Andy Xie, ex Morgan Stanley analyst is pretty sure about the stocks and property bubble in China.
MyView
Take Prechter's view seriously but that does not mean you cannot invest in good fundamental stocks/ETFs which are expose to agriculture around the globe, or even water treatment engineering companies all over the world where demand are going to increase over longer runs. Meanwhile, you may want to take advantages of Prechter timing the asset class, which actually differentiate a winner from an average investor.
Remember, each individual has different risk profile, time frame of investment, amount to be invested and competency, but it is not wrong to say there are lots of unpolished diamonds around the world market, the question is, do you want to wait?
No comments:
Post a Comment