Sunday, July 26, 2009

SOS The worst is over!


Not according to Martin Weiss, page 35 of this book called the Ultiamate Depression Survival Guide.


Phase 1 : bust in sub prime mortgage market, by 2008 this had already taken place

Phase 2 : A severe US recession, by 2008, this phase was beggining

Phase 3 : Depression and deflation. Still ahead!


The direct causes:


  1. large inventories of unsold properties (is it around 2.0 million unsold)

  2. abandon projects will cause neighborhood properties to decline (side effect)

  3. 6 million adjustable rate mortgages that could reset at higher rates, forcing millions of additional foreclosure (it ain't over yet pal)

  4. falling rents cause people to abandon their homes (more to come)

  5. soaring unemployment (how to make payments)
Mytake

Martin manage to speak to his father, Irwin Weiss, before he passed away, who personally went through the 1929 to 1932, so, he speaks from experience. Instead of debating on the issue that the worst is over! might as well do some research on what Martin and Irwin said.

Total debt of US is about USD60 trillion or 4 times the GDP
Total medicare and social care is estimated also about USD60 trillion (in coming years, where to get the money?)
Total US derivatives bet is about USD200 trillions, well only about about 46 times of GDP

I do not believe it would take a genius to figure out the implosion of this debt, no amount of government can stop it, slowing it perhaps, but not stopping it.

Sell your stocks - before it's too late, according to Martin in Chapter 3.

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