The Partial Recovery is Already Maturing Late February-early March was a great time to step aside from our bearish opinion. The outlook for a rally that would be “sharp and scary for anyone who is short” has pretty well come to pass. Our “All the Same Market” theme has ruled the entire time. In just three months, the S&P has leaped over 40 percent, the dollar has plunged 13 percent, gold, silver, oil and the CRB index of commodities have all rallied, real estate deals have picked up, and the economy is showing signs of recovery. Our prediction for a temporary turn toward optimism meant a rise in the availability of credit, which has fueled all these trends and events.
These outcomes are just as one would expect from a turn toward optimism in a deflationary environment where the ebb and flow of liquidity is the financial tail on the social-mood dog. It has been breathtaking to watch the swift return to all the old false beliefs: the bull market is back; inflation is the main threat; we are running out of oil; real estate is a bargain; and the economy is setting up to boom. We explicitly forecast that investors and economists would return to optimistic views, and it has happened. This is the power of a Primary degree second wave.
It shows up in the rally in our All-the-Same-Markets Index (ASMI), as shown above.
MyTake
Well the US Government has thrown about USD12.7 trillion into the market, and in their report on TARP will expect the total bill to be USD23.5 trillion. Wow! where are they getting the money from? I tend to listen to the elderly, especially people like Robert Prechter, Gary Shilling, Harry Dent, Martin Weiss and not forgetting Jim Rogers and Marc Faber. We don't have to share the same opinion, but i can tell, there are definitely wise. Didn't your parents tell you to listen to the wise guy, here they are LISTEN UP!
No comments:
Post a Comment