SOS Revenge of the Fallen

It will be back! With a vengence.

SOS Survival Guide

Martin Weiss, http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/, on 30 July 2009, said the full impact of deflationary depression is postponed due to the stimulus plan, but he insist his call on deflationary depression did not change an iota. It may be delay to the next fall or early 2010, the second tsunami.

Have we forgotten the size of the bubble!

1. consumption bubble - USD9.8 trillion


2. mortgate bubble - USD20 trillion


3. derivatives bubble - USD200 trillion (credit default swap USD60 trillion, MGS, CDO, CLO etc)


4. bailout bubble - USD24.7 trillion


5. social and medicare commitment bubble - USD58 trillion

The only different between US and Japan is, the size of bailout is bigger, the gearing is bigger, and the derivatives is definitely a lot bigger and the consumption bubble is also bigger.

MyView

US and EU is doomed, doubt there is a way out other than bite the bullet. The bailouts and stimulus manage to win back the confidence or buy time, so to speak, but, the fundametal did not change i.e. bubble problems is not solved, the second tsunami will be back with a vengence. It would be far bigger than the first one.

SOS Inverse ETFs

For those who believe in deflationary depression is yet to come, perhaps Inverse ETFs will help you prosper. Inverse ETF is like a ETF that short the market/assets.

Some of the Inverse ETFs are:-

DOG - short Dow 30

CMD - short commodity

SKF - short financials

SRS - short real estates

REW - short technology

EEV - short emerging market

Analysts that believe US & Europe is going to go through deflationary depression, where, most assets class investments will fall:-

Robert Prechter

Martin Weiss

Gary Shilling

Harry Dent

MyView

I personally believe the experts above said is true, based on facts, and figures and social mood as well. There are money to be made in a depression. Well, allocate a sum of money you can afford to lose, because this is a chance of a lifetime, in occur every 76 years. Well, if you got it wrong, meaning the market is not going into deflationary depression, there are higher chances that you still keep your job, so, that's not too bad. Once the deflation plays out (could be 2010 to 2014), the hyper inflation will sets in, the you move your investments into Commodities.

Well, if you read it wrongly, i.e. inflationary depression comes first, then you lose. So please do your homework, get prepare. Either case, you can have about 20% hedge over your call, either inflation or deflation. Refer to my article on Portfolio Allocation.

SOS Martin Weiss

The U.S. and most of Europe are buried in mountains of debts which, even in the best of circumstances, could take many years to unwind. Brazil, India, China, and others (such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and South Korea) are not.

According to the Fed’s Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States, at the end of the first quarter, the U.S. had $6.8 trillion in Treasury debt, $8.2 trillion in government agency debt, $2.7 trillion in municipal debt, $11.6 trillion of corporate debt, $14.6 trillion in mortgage debt, $2.5 trillion in consumer debt, plus $6.5 trillion in other debts.
Grand total: $52.9 trillion, the highest in history. (To see exactly where I get these numbers, click here.)

Moreover, the U.S. government has future obligations to Social Security, Medicare, and pensions that exceed $60 trillion … while U.S. banks now hold derivatives obligations exceeding $202 trillion, according to the latest tally by the OCC.

This is a huge, unprecedented burden to every single segment of our economy:
U.S. families are buried in their mortgages and credit cards, getting forced out of their homes by the millions.

U.S. cities and states are jettisoning essential services, abandoning decades-long commitments to their citizens.

U.S. corporations are defaulting on their debts in record numbers, with worse to come.

MyView

Some people said he is a pessimist, but, if you read his view, all based on hard facts and figures, he is merely explaining the figures and his expectations based on fact and figures. I will say he is objective and realistic, he just called a spade, spade. His father Irwing Weiss, personally encounter the same situation in 1929-1932, his view is based on experience (with the father's experience), it is highly believable.

Just compare if you ask the question in early March and now in July 2009, you will realise that most of the investor outlook change 360 degree, in a short span of 5 months.

Well, it is worth awhile to check out his book on The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide. I think, it is wise to listen to people like him, who is able to see the Bigger Picture. Of course, he was mainly refering to US and Europe, while he believe Asia should do fairly.

SOS Balance Your Portfolio

INFLATION

DEFLATION

GOLDILOCKS

Portfolio for Inflation, Deflation and Goldilocks


MyView

Note, this is meant for the American only, those who lives in Asia, you may like to reweigh it differently, but overall, the asset class seems OK. Btw, this is from Charles Schwab, not me. Investment must be independent, like what Jim Rogers said, however, one must conduct his or her own research, so as to know what went wrong or right, failing which, one may not win big. I believe, lots of reading and researching helps, however, don't forget what you did not learn in school, common sense and logic.

So, start doing your homework, there are still time. Anyway, it is both art and science, but knowing what went right or wrong is also important, or we will end up like a dog, chasing our own tail.

SOS the bounce is aging, but the depression is young

The Partial Recovery is Already Maturing Late February-early March was a great time to step aside from our bearish opinion. The outlook for a rally that would be “sharp and scary for anyone who is short” has pretty well come to pass. Our “All the Same Market” theme has ruled the entire time. In just three months, the S&P has leaped over 40 percent, the dollar has plunged 13 percent, gold, silver, oil and the CRB index of commodities have all rallied, real estate deals have picked up, and the economy is showing signs of recovery. Our prediction for a temporary turn toward optimism meant a rise in the availability of credit, which has fueled all these trends and events.

These outcomes are just as one would expect from a turn toward optimism in a deflationary environment where the ebb and flow of liquidity is the financial tail on the social-mood dog. It has been breathtaking to watch the swift return to all the old false beliefs: the bull market is back; inflation is the main threat; we are running out of oil; real estate is a bargain; and the economy is setting up to boom. We explicitly forecast that investors and economists would return to optimistic views, and it has happened. This is the power of a Primary degree second wave.

It shows up in the rally in our All-the-Same-Markets Index (ASMI), as shown above.

MyTake

Well the US Government has thrown about USD12.7 trillion into the market, and in their report on TARP will expect the total bill to be USD23.5 trillion. Wow! where are they getting the money from? I tend to listen to the elderly, especially people like Robert Prechter, Gary Shilling, Harry Dent, Martin Weiss and not forgetting Jim Rogers and Marc Faber. We don't have to share the same opinion, but i can tell, there are definitely wise. Didn't your parents tell you to listen to the wise guy, here they are LISTEN UP!

SOS The worst is over!

Not according to Martin Weiss, page 35 of this book called the Ultiamate Depression Survival Guide.

Phase 1 : bust in sub prime mortgage market, by 2008 this had already taken place

Phase 2 : A severe US recession, by 2008, this phase was beggining

Phase 3 : Depression and deflation. Still ahead!

The direct causes:

1. large inventories of unsold properties (is it around 2.0 million unsold)


2. abandon projects will cause neighborhood properties to decline (side effect)


3. 6 million adjustable rate mortgages that could reset at higher rates, forcing millions of additional foreclosure (it ain't over yet pal)


4. falling rents cause people to abandon their homes (more to come)


5. soaring unemployment (how to make payments)

Mytake

Martin manage to speak to his father, Irwin Weiss, before he passed away, who personally went through the 1929 to 1932, so, he speaks from experience. Instead of debating on the issue that the worst is over! might as well do some research on what Martin and Irwin said.

Total debt of US is about USD60 trillion or 4 times the GDP
Total medicare and social care is estimated also about USD60 trillion (in coming years, where to get the money?)
Total US derivatives bet is about USD200 trillions, well only about about 46 times of GDP

I do not believe it would take a genius to figure out the implosion of this debt, no amount of government can stop it, slowing it perhaps, but not stopping it.

Sell your stocks - before it's too late, according to Martin in Chapter 3.

SOS Commodities

Short Run the world has sufficient grain and food. Long run, there are shortage.

SOS Depression 2.0

Well, the DJIA has went up to about 9000 points, fantastic, the worst is over, that is what the majority said.

Are they right this time, yes there are, perhaps for 3 to 6 months, after that, what? Don't forget, in 1929 Great Depression, it took about 3 years to bottom from the peak, i.e. drop about 89 percent.

Now, it went down from say 14,000 to 7,000, then up again to about 9,000 or give it 10,000, it is down only about 28 per cent. So, if Prechter is right, this is only one their from the peak. The bottom would be around 2000 points.

So, as usual, I am wrong, almost for a year now.

SOS Depression 1.0

Depression 1.o - 1939

Irwing Weiss, father of Martin Weiss, who has not only has personal experience to the 1929 depression, but actually predict it, says

"After the crash, the stock market actually rallied for almost 6 months and everyone on Wall Street thought that the worst is over" but Irwing persuaded his friends and clients to sell everything, get the heck out of the stock market and pile up as much cash as possible."

Depression 2.o - 2009

Today, his son Martin Weiss, says

"Despite and differences betweeen then and now, all depressions have some key elements in common: They are far deepaer and longer lasting than recessions - a severe contraction in the economy for multiple years, creating massive unemployment, and delivering devastating financial losses to the majority of the population"

Mytake

The more less people believe in this, the higher the chances it is going to happen. The crazier the idea it is, the more likelihood it will occur. Well, as for me, I have never heard of the majority makes it rich. So, when majority things that the worst is over, it is likely that the bust is far from over. Well, during the 30's depressions, there are actually 7 bear market rallies, ranging from 20-48%.

SOS Martin Weiss

Well, there are seriously a lot of gurus out there on world economics. Similarly, they are lots of good books out there. The question is, how do we know he is a good or not so good gurus, look at their track records.

Another new inclusion, an interesting one as well is Martin Weiss, the junior of Irwing Weiss, who made a killing during the Great Depression in 1930.

Well, he is in the same deflationary depression club with Robert Prechter, Gary Shilling and Harry Dent. His latest book is the Ultimate Depression Survival Guide.

So, US and EU is overconsume and over geared and somewhere else in the world are overproduced and over invest and over saved. Could it be the BRICS? Well, one may argue the oversave countries can then produce for their own people. Well, it is always so interesting to read the world economy, it is so dynamic and illusive, because we are dealing with social moods of human being.

Mytake
My take is, if deflation does happen, save more cash for later, it would be bargain of the century, the Great Depression 2.0

Do not follow the crowd. In history, I have never heard that the majority got rich during a crisis, only a minority that does not follow the crowd that make a killing in investments.

Perhaps we can do a survey in the internet, like what Tun Mahathir did on the English for Mathemathics and Science, then do something difference from the majority. Remember, always think independently, because no one else in the world know your investment appetite, your holding power, your patience, your liking, you expertise etc.

SOS Marc Faber

Actually the US economy can falls into both

deflationist and/or inflationist

Watch the interview between Marc Faber and Martin Song (?) on CNBC in July, Marc Faber says he is more in the inflaionist camp because the entire world is printing money. However, he also do not preclude that if everything goes wrong, the stimulus unable to stop the wave, deflationist should not be rule out as well.

All the following issues are unprecedented (that's why alien problems require monster solution):

1. the amount of credit bubble build up over the last 20 yrs in US and the rest of the world


2. the stimulus plan of trillions pump into the market


3. the increase in derivatives over the last 20 years

So it is very difficult to predict the share market, depends, which extremes it goes. If items no. 1 and 3 overpower item no. 2, then it inflationist is likely to be right, but if it otherwise, deflationist is right.

I believe it will be a mix of both. Deflationary on capital goods, and inflationary on consumer goods.

Marc Faber, Peter Schiff and Jim Rogers are certain that in 0-5 yrs time there will be hyperinflation and USD currency is going to collapse. They are also certain the 2008 & 2009 US crisis is not the last, but within the next 3-5yrs, there will be another BIG ONE coming as the stimulus plan slow down the death.

Well, it is challenging task to predict the near future, but it is easier to foresee the longer term effects as Jim, Marc and Peter Schiff pointed out.

Perhaps, blend your thoughts of Jim, Marc and Peter with Robert Prechter, Harry Dent and Gary Shilling, you will be totally confused.

Marc has always point out to its audience, in investment, it is really depends on your investment profile, your age, appetite, risk taking, others. Marc advocates holding gold and real estates in Asia, he also mentioned he hold F&N in Bursa Malaysia.

He also said, it is better to hold stocks in Asia, Singapore, Malaysia or Thailand that gives a net yield of say 5-7% p.a. is far more better than holding a 30 yrs bond that has a yield of 2-3% and in stock you can participate in the upside on the recovery, which will easily outperform bonds.

However, Prechter advocates to play save until the deflationy depression plays out in a few years time, i.e. when everything collapse, capital goods and consumer goods and financial assets, then you can pick up the pieces then.

Jim Rogers is more of a long term trend reader, which he is very good at. He advocates, invest in quality farm land, water projects in China, agricultural stocks, crude oil related business, because the fundamental is getting better even if the world economy tank, and when recovery comes, these investment will be the first to recover and in a big way. He has stop buying China stocks since late 2008 and he did says, correction may be coming.

Well, Peter Schiff advocates more on precious metals, foreign stocks in agriculture, oil and high dividend yield stocks (mainly in Asia, Austalia, NZ). Of course, he advocates on hyperinflation.

MyTake

All of them are correct. The only different is the timing of their judgement. Perhaps we may have a 40% Prechter, 30% Jim Rogers, 20% Marc Faber and 10% Peter Schiff.

This way, you will always be right. Or just follow one school, but whatever it is, please do your homework, don't be slack, use common sense, use whatever tools you can to help you forecast.

Safest bet will be high yield stocks - some of the good criterion - very low gearing, monopoly, low impact by world economy downturn, strong ROE, proven track record.

SOS who is right? Your pick

Dear all, kindly pick the experts (on economics) according to your liking:

1. Peter Shiff


2. Jim Rogers


3. Marc Faber


4. Gerald Celente


5. Webster Tarpley


6. Bob Chapman


7. Lindsey Williams


8. Max Keiser


9. Robert Prechter


10. Harry S. Dent


11. A. Gary Shilling


12. Andy Xie
13. George Soros

And also pick your shape of the recovery of world economy (not stock market) in 2009

1. V
2. U
3. W
4. L
5. \
6. ?

Who it the biggest culprit?

1. Derivatives (USD600 trillion)
2. US debt (USD60 trillion)
3. Credit bubble - student loan, sub prime mortage, hedge funds, etf, credit default swap, cdo, mortgage debt securities, etc

What inflation cannot dissapear?

1. currency inflation?
2. credit inflation?

The answer is currency inflation.

MyTake on world economy (especially US)

1. deflationary depression (2-3 years)
2. may follow by hyper inflation (after deflationary depression in full swing, buy commodities)
3. V shape recovery (highly unlikely, but a slow recovery)

Reasons for the above CREDIT deflation. It is simply too hugh (including derivatives), period.

SOS Morality

This is the state of morality of the world.

SOS Obamanomics

Wise guy. He can see beyond the ordinary people. How do you explain when Obama ask his wife to join him for dinner in Paris at the expense of taxpayer money using Air Force One, when there are about 7.2 million unemployed?

Hypocracy at its ultimate. It happens everywhere, and it has becomes a market norm. The elites normally are the judge, jury and the plaintiff. That is how the world works, unfortunately.

SOS conclusion on Inflation vs Deflation

6 in US says deflationary depression (follows by hyper inflation later)

2,999,994 US says inflation or hyperinflation

My view is, normally or most of the time, the majority is wrong. Countdown, for me 28 days left to mid August, the D-Day.

SOS Deflation or Hyperinflation?

Figure 1

Hyperinflation or deflation?by Puru SaxenaEditor, Money MattersJuly 8, 2009

At present, the investment community is divided as to whether the world economy faces hyperinflation or deflation. Some observers are convinced that the central banks’ printing press will take the world towards hyperinflation whereas others believe that the ongoing contraction in American private-sector debt will result in outright deflation. So, what will the future bring?
It is my contention that we will get neither hyperinflation nor deflation.

What is more likely is that over the coming months, we will get another deflationary scare. Any sell-off in the markets later this year will be met by an even larger stimulus from the policymakers and this will ultimately result in high inflation.

So, I maintain my view that due to the unprecedented policy responses around the globe, the world’s economy will face high inflation over the medium to long-term. And the general price level will double over the coming decade.

In the near-term however, we will probably get another period when the market will (once again) become concerned about the prospects of a lengthy economic contraction. It is conceivable that the ‘green shoots’ hype currently doing the rounds will soon be replaced by more economic worries as a second wave of foreclosures hits America later this year. So, it is possible that before year-end, we will witness large corrections in stocks and commodities. Conversely, we are likely to see big rallies in US government bonds, US Dollar and Japanese Yen.

This near-term vulnerability in the markets is the reason why I have recently liquidated our ‘long’ positions in resources and emerging markets and gained a heavy exposure to long dated US Treasuries. In my view, a defensive investment stance is prudent at this juncture as it will protect our capital and allow us to profit from the expected contraction. Once the pullback in the markets is complete, I will liquidate our positions in US Treasuries and re-invest our capital in our preferred holdings in energy, materials, mining and emerging Asia.

Look. In the business of investing, the tape never lies and it is worth remembering that Wall Street is littered with the graves of those who got married to one particular outcome and then held on to their ill-conceived notions. At this point, when private-sector debt contraction in America is locking horns with central bank inflation, I prefer to have an open mind. Therefore, I am maintaining a defensive near-term investment position. If the market corrects over the following weeks, I will be in a position to profit from such a decline. On the other hand, if the major indices simply consolidate here and break above the recovery highs recorded last month, then I will have no hesitation in changing my defensive investment position. Put simply, I am currently watching and waiting patiently for the market to reveal its hand.

Coming back to the subject of this essay; the reason why I don’t foresee immediate hyperinflation is due to the fact that the velocity of money is currently weak. In other words, at least for the moment, the private-sector in America isn’t participating in Mr. Bernanke’s inflation agenda. Despite the fact that Mr. Bernanke has injected a massive amount of reserves in the banking sector, this money is currently sitting as excess reserves within the American banking system. The fact that this money isn’t being lent out rules out immediate hyperinflation. However, once the American economy stabilises and the velocity of money picks up, these excess reserves will trigger a massive inflationary wave.

As far as deflation is concerned, I am of the view that the policy responses and our fiat-money system will ensure that the purchasing power of cash will continue to diminish over the medium to long-term. In fact, I am willing to bet that cash will probably be the worst performing ‘asset’ over the coming decade. Remember, in today’s monetary system, central banks and governments the world over are free to create money out of thin air and this will prevent outright deflation in the global economy.

It is worth noting that in the past six months alone, China’s commercial bank credit has expanded by a whopping US$1 trillion! Figure 1 highlights the surge in Chinese bank lending. Furthermore, credit is also expanding frantically in other Asian nations. So, contrary to the West, monetary policy is still alive and well in the developing nations and this factor also rules out outright deflation in the global economy.

Figure 1: Explosion in China’s bank credit
Source: Bank of China

In my opinion, rather than hyperinflation or outright deflation, we will witness elevated inflation after the American economy has stabilised. In the interim however, investors should be prepared for another deflationary scare and the associated market panic.

SOS Dow Jones Bottom

Derivatives is a type of credit.

The definition of deflation is a contraction of money and credit relative to available goods.

Inflation is an increase in the volume of money and credit relative to available goods.

Robert Prechter view is, the credit bubble is too huge, i.e. 380% of GDP in 2008 i.e. about USD53.2 trillion (and that is exclusive of DERIVATIVES, which is another say, USD60 trillion), no amount of credit is sufficient to reflate it. Even the government budget deficit of USD4.5 trillion is like a drop of water on a hot frying pan, it will quickly sizzle off. Even the USD4.5 trillion raised is a form of credit by the government. So the likelihood of deflation is much higher than inflation, but he did say, hyperinflation will come later, towards the end of deflation.

According to Robert Prechter, forecasted in mid 08, the DJ will bottom at around 2014 to 2016 in terms of gold. DJIA has been on the down trend since 2000 in term of gold. It will reach around 5 oz of gold per DJ index point. Hence, it is either the drop in DJ or rise in Gold or drop in DJ is faster relative to drop in Gold.

What will they think of next?

SOS Bull or Bear?

Bull or Bear?

Illusion or Reality?

Answer the questions with BULL or BEAR

Credit crunch due to sub prime - what about prime?

Loss of 6.5mil jobs, what about new jobs suppose to create over last 18mths?

Is the creditworthiness of credit cards owner improved?

Is the bankruptcy cases increase or decrease over the last 6 months?

Did the exports or imports improves over last 6 months?

Did the employment for manufacturing workers increase or decrease over last 10 yrs?

What is the credit growth for banks?

Did the investments improve over the last 6 months in US?

What about consumptions, increasing or decreasing?

Do you think the property will improve over the next 6 months? What about commercial?

Is the USD600 trillion derivatives resolved or unwinding gradually?

Do we think the stimulus is good for the economy, if yes how?

Each question, you can put a BULL or BEAR as the answer, in there end count the BULLS and the BEARS.

SOS Spirituality

Falun Gong Practitioners in Taiwan (www.falungong.org)

SOS Ben Bernanke's Deflation vs Robert Prechter

Seven years hence, that speech is more famous now than it was then -- lots of people have recently read it and have commented on what it says (including yours truly). Yet blogger Mike Shedlock's analysis remains the most devastating I've read to date regarding the Federal Reserve's impotence: It goes point-by-point through Bernanke's 2002 speech, using it as a "scorecard" for the Fed's anti-deflation policies. Here it is:

1. Reduce nominal interest rate to zero. Check. That didn’t work...
2. Increase the number of dollars in circulation, or credibly threaten to do so. Check. That didn’t work
3. Expand the scale of asset purchases or, possibly, expand the menu of assets it buys. Check & check. That didn’t work...
4. Make low-interest-rate loans to banks. Check. That didn’t work...
5. Cooperate with fiscal authorities to inject more money. Check. That didn’t work...
6. Lower rates further out along the Treasury term structure. Check. That didn’t work...
7. Commit to holding the overnight rate at zero for some specified period. Check. That didn’t work...
8. Begin announcing explicit ceilings for yields on longer-maturity Treasury debt (bonds maturing within the next two years); enforce interest-rate ceilings by committing to make unlimited purchases of securities at prices consistent with the targeted yields. Check, and check. That didn’t work...
9. If that proves insufficient, cap yields of Treasury securities at still longer maturities, say three to six years. Check (they’re buying out to 7 years right now.) That didn’t work...
10. Use its existing authority to operate in the markets for agency debt. Check (in fact, they “own” the agency debt market!) That didn’t work...
11. Influence yields on privately issued securities. (Note: the Fed used to be restricted in doing that, but not anymore.) Check. That didn’t work...
12. Offer fixed-term loans to banks at low or zero interest, with a wide range of private assets deemed eligible as collateral (…Well, I’m still waiting for them to accept bellybutton lint & Beanie Babies, but I’m sure my patience will be rewarded. Besides their “mark-to-maturity” offers will be more than enticing!) Anyway… Check. That didn’t work...
13. Buy foreign government debt (and although Ben didn’t specifically mention it, let’s not forget those dollar swaps with foreign nations.) Check. That didn’t work...

You've read this far, so please permit me another quote -- this one from Bob Prechter, in his 2002 book Conquer the Crash:

"While the Fed could embark on an aggressive plan to liquefy the banking system with cash in response to a developing credit crisis, that action itself ironically could serve to aggravate deflation, not relieve it.... Nervous holders of suspect debt that was near expiration could simply decline to exercise their option to repurchase it once the current holding term ran out. Fearful holders of suspect long-term debt far from expiration could dump their notes and bonds on the market, making prices collapse. If this were to happen, the net result of an attempt at inflating would be a system-wide reduction in the purchasing power of dollar-denominated debt, in other words, a drop in the dollar value of total credit extended, which is deflation."

SOS Who is right?

In the long run everyone is right. Even a dead clock is right twice a day.

Why does the economists has so much contrary views? Aren't they studying the same books? Aren't they applying the same principles?

From what we watch and read in the news and media, apparently not. In fact, everyone has his or her own view. Different story for different picture. It depends which perspective you look at. But one interesting one is, few study socialnomics, which studies the change is social moods that determine the trends.

So which schools would you follow?

It would be such a waste of time if a student choose the wrong schools and put in thousand of hours studying the same wrong stuff. If the stuff they are studying is right, how come majorities misread the economy in 2008? Do we think the same economists read it correctly these time in 2009? Simply logic and common will tell us, don't believe the same majorities that got it wrong in the first place.

So, how do we get the right stuff? Research, think independently, use logic and common sense.

SOS Confusion

This happened in USA in 1929 and it will happen again in 2009, only it is much stronger now.

Confusion is when all of these happen in this particular sequential order

Recession, Deflation, Reflation, Depression, Inflation, Hyper inflation, Stagflation.

You will never find these in your economic books. Just learn from the recent events in US, UK and Asia.

Some school of economists:-

Deflationary Depression then Hyper inflation

Harry Dent

Robert Prechter (Conquer the Crash)

Inflationary Depression then Hyper inflation

Peter Schiff (Crash Proof)

Marc Faber

Jim Rogers

Adrian Salbuchi

Andy Xie

Depression

Webster Tarpley

Lindsay Williams

Tom Woods (Meltdown)

Goods and Investments Assets (Financial Assets)

Deflationary Depression means all class of investment assets will collapse, stocks, commodities, real estates, bonds and other financial assets

SOS Shanghai Collapse

Shanghai 13 storey apartment collapsed (June 2009). This will happen exactly like the Shanghai Stock Market, because of the same reason, the fundamental is not strong.