This is a trillion dollar question.
Even James Chanos is early by 2 years for shorting China properties.
Gary Shilling is also early by about 2 years in predicting that USA and commodities will go down again.
Robert Prechter is also early by about 2 years in forecasting that DJIA will collapse.
Charles Nenner is predicting in 2012.
Timing is a very very tricky issue. In economics, it is like a dynamic puzzle, it changes every time. It is emotional. One minute you have MENA, the next you have Tsunami, then you have Missouri flood, now the PIIGS is protesting and China overheating. In order to predict the reaction of investors, traders, speculators in the financial market is not that easy.
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Although it is obvious the we are seeing the cracks, but it can last longer than you can expect. After all, the financial market does not work on rational actions. We know that derivatives are 10 times bigger than the world markets, but no one even dare to quantified its effects or it is damn difficult to calculate its effect. No professors from Harvard or MIT got it right. Look at LTCM. Look at Lehman, even 3 years later, know one would admit it was due to DERIVATIVES. With all this window dressing, covering ups, manipulations, the truth will take longer to review.
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