Tuesday, June 28, 2011

SOS Red Alert! Financial Tsunami is here to stay!

Run, the sky is falling! According to Chicken little.

I have wrote a couple of pieces on the 2nd Financial Tsunami over the last one year. It is written not because I want it to happen, it is written actually to forewarn people to be prepared for it.

One may ask, it has nothing to do with me, why should I care? Well, there are not many that lives through the Great Depression of 1930s, so not many experience it. Say if you are 20 years old during the great depression, you will be around 100 years old today. Not many live to tell the tale of the Great Depression.

Let us look as Japan. Almost become super power (economically) in the late 80s. Today, the share market is only, it had dropped 75% from its peak in 1989. Properties in Japan today is around 60% lower than during the peak.

Most are saying China will take over USA in 2016. Most economist or financial experts always use the theory of extrapolation unknowingly. Who could have thought of that in the 70s where China will become the second largest economy in the world. Example, say China will grow 8% in the next 10 years, it will be bigger that USA in 6 years time. Well, they said the same thing about Japan in the late 80s and look what happen.

The only different today as compared with Japan is that the magnitude is much higher, thanks to the introduction of DERIVATIVES. Before we come to derivatives, what about the debt being accumulated over the past few decades by the USA? Derivatives is 10times the size of world economy add up.

MyView

Some may ask, why I spent so much time reading, watching, analysing, debating, discussing about the world economy? It is a valid question though, why? The short answer is to HELP others to realize the implications of the Financial Tsunami. To help whoever is reading to be prepared to face the financial tsunami. If not, one will not even aware what hit them during the tsunami.

So that people will stay away from Shares, Derivatives, and Properties where possible, or when it drops, it will be like or worst than Japan. Besides, one should also know what to do during those deleveraging period (no rush, easily takes a couple of years if not for decades)

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