Thursday, October 29, 2009

SOS Myth on US Dollar


Facts

S&P 500 (according to Bloomberg Sept 2009) = PE of 20.2 times
Dow 30 dividend yield = 2.94% lowest since 1929
Stocks are overvalued relative last 80 years

Myths

Dollar will collapse = due to stimulus & money printing (on contrary, debt implosion or deleveraging is quicker than the printer

Fed can solve the problem = never in history, only prolong or worsen

Gold is undervalued = relative against US currency, who depreciate 96% (25 times) while gold appreciate from USD20 to USD1000 per oz (50 times) since 1971, hence it is relative

Crude oil will reach USD100 per barrel = another myth on peak oil = collapse in consumption will keep it down

Earnings will drive the market = myth

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