Tuesday, October 20, 2009

SOS Fiat Money


GOVERMENT - total USD121.8 trillion
  1. Healthcare plan - USD1 trillion
  2. Govt deficit next 10 yrs - USD9 trillion
  3. Existing Govt debt - USD11.8 trillion
  4. Unfunded Obligation (socialcare, medicare, medicade) - USD104 trillion
PRIVATE - total USD300 trillion
  1. Private or Corporate Debt - USD45 trillion
  2. Debt held by Foreign countries - USD7.9 trillion
  3. Derivatives - USD250 trillion (some are contra off)
GDP - total USD14 trillion (2008)
  1. GDP = consumption + govt spending + investment + [export - import]
  2. Consumption = USD10 trillion
  3. DJIA earnings about USD0.5 trillion to USD0.75 trillion (average 2007-2008)
  4. DJIA earnings 2009 = less than USD0.14 trillion or USD140 billion
Current Indicators (consumption related)
  1. Savings rate of consumer increased since early 2009
  2. Lending is down (but reserve is up, arising from QE)
  3. Borrowing is down (overleverage, credit cards, mortgage)
  4. 98 banks bankrupted to date
  5. Unemployment rate increases


MyView
  1. Most says USD continue to collapse
  2. Most says run to hard assets i.e. commodities
  3. Most says Hyperinflation is the current threat
  4. Most says China & Russia & Emerging market will save for global economy
  5. Most says gold price will at least double over the next few years
I say, these most people are the same most people that read the same indicators and came from the same economic school.

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