Wednesday, September 23, 2009

SOS Who Buying Real Estate?


Think again, is it the owner or the bank is buying the real estate? You put 10%, what about the remaining 90% loan and the interest?

All balloning of credit, will cause delation (all prices goes down at different rate and sector).

  • Inflationist is missing on the unpayable ocean of debt, as the value start to disappear; and
  • over estimating the Fed desire and ability to inflate the money supply. Fed is unable to change the trend, they are merely following the short term move.

Elliot wave forecast the social mood. Social mood now is saying it is going towards deflation. Add 160 pages in Conquer the Crash. Realising soon, after S&P 500 increases 55%.

Crash has not ended, has only begun, probably is the last high you can take advantage.

How do we then explain deflation in the rises of prices of the following:

  • education costs
  • insurance
  • income tax
  • sales tax
  • food prices increase
  • healthcare costs increase
  • increase in motor tax
  • water price increase

Bob Prechter said it is because the meddling by the US Government, and usually the lagging indicator of the deflation.

  • Focus on this, bailing out of banks (not consumers) because bank have given out trillions of uncollectable loans.
  • consumer is savings or not spending due to unemployment, inability to rely on stocks or property to support their loans etc.

One of the precondition of deflation is the inability to pay the huge ocean of debt created over the last 15 years of about USD53 trillion in corporate debt plus derivatives plus social care, medicare etc.

Deflation goes hand in hand with depression. Swapping IOUs will not help as 90-95% are going default.

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