SOS Financial Tsunami Again?

By Robert Prechter of Elliot Wave said in Sept

• crude oil in the long run will go below USD10 per barrel


• US stock market is waning, volume is shrinking


• precious metal will retreat to lower


• US dollar is gaining strength


• housing prices will continue to drop in longer term

By Jeffery Kennedy of Elliot Wave expert on commodities said in June

• Wheat is ripe to drop


• Corn will drop lower than its 2008 low


• Soya bean looks to go down

MyView

1. First reaction from the majority is this two guys must be crazy going against the current


2. So far up to Sept 19 they are proven wrong, gold exceed USD1000 per oz, S&P500 went up about 4-5%, housing prices improved, crude oil touches USD74 per barrel, sugar continue to goes up, US dollar slide further to historical low


3. I have never seen experts can be all wrong in all respects, are they reading the right charts? Or are they too detached from reality?


4. Well, only time will tell, tick tock tick tock.......

Well, for the bullish, they should enter the market to enjoy more gains and for this two guys, the berish camp, they will short gold, short housing, short share market, short commodities and long on USD.

What should we do then?

What do you think? Well I think the financial tsunami of 2008 will revisit us in 2009 with a vengence. This time round, it will be more fierce and more casualties. Very seldom do we see two experience experts got so completely wrong, almost less than 5%. So the question or the challenge to the investors out there, are you the inflationist or deflationist? It does make a different in your portfolio formation, because if you read it wrongly, boom, you may lose tonnes.

1. Why don't we balance the both, we know long run, gold will go up (so buy gradually from small amount to huge amount i.e. short run you may be wrong if the two guys are right, but long run, more importantly you make money, of course you could have make more if you listen to the two crazy guys. You can try GLD, GDX (real gold) or crude oil (black gold) companies like APC again the word is gradually and don't forget (poor man's Gold) SLV, SLW;


2. What about green gold (agriculture) PAGG and blue gold (water) PIO;


3. Lastly, on currency, this is tricky, there are ETF for short or long USD (fiat gold). There are many ETF on bullish dollar like UUP and others.


4. What about ETF on Inflation and on Deflation, yep, there are available too, such as TBT, TIPS, etc

So, if you are inflationist, your portfolio should be 70% inflationist (all types of gold) stuff and 30% as hedge (just in case you are wrong);

If you are delationist, your portfolio should be 70% CASH or money market, and 30% on inflationist stuff.

On another note, you may want to consider "uncovered gems" such as biotechnology, "catalyst" for telecomunications or "high dividend yield stocks". In short, disregard inflationist or deflationist, please do not miss out on realist investments - which goes up based on catalyst disregarding the share markets up or down or sideway, they will explode when the time are ripe. Of course, it is not easy, you may like to consider "sourcing" from experts.

Hey, I almost forgot, you can long or short major markets in the world, like shorting China shares (FXP), if you long China (FXI), what about long Brazil (EWY), and emerging market (E??)

Well, it looks like anything in this world can be invested upon, other than SPIRITUALITY, where you can invest you time in it.