Friday, September 25, 2009

SOS Some Economic Theory is a Myth


HOW DID WE GET INTO THIS MESS? 15,000 economists missed the 2008 Mother of Great Depression. Have anyone ask, is the theory they learned could be a fallacy?

By Dr Steve Keen @ www.debunkingeconomics.com

The fundamental of economics ignore:
  • time
  • uniqueness of capital
  • specific skills of labor
And the Theory is based on:
  • capital & labor is "infinitely flexible" within countries
  • can move without "loss" between industry
Globalisation promoted involves
  • overidding rights for transnational corporations
  • free movements of capital (not labor)
  • uninhibited repatration of profits
Failed prediction of Globalisation:

Minimum yearly wages
80-84 95-99
Mexico (USD) 1,343 768 down 43%
USA (USD) 6,006 8,056 up 34%

There are many fallacy in the modern economic theories such as:
  • competitive advantage
  • privatisation
  • marginal utility theory of value
  • assumed general equilibrium
Has the market system behaved as economic theories predict?
  • Asian crisis (blamed on cronyism) vs Dotcom burst
  • Japan lost decades
So has reality failed to live up to theory?
  • theory predicts market economy will be unstable
  • then why assumption of equilibrium?
  • economics assumed equilibrium but models won't converge to it (let alone real economies)
This is mainly due to
  • majority ignore dynamics, assume can apply equilibrium models to non equilibrium system
  • economists continue to insist that linearity remains a good assumption for all time series, despite the fact economic theory provides little support for the assumption of linearity
Fallacy of economic policy
  • free trade is always better than protection
  • market price is always better than subsidised ones
  • private is always better than public/government
Econophysics likely to give time based answers:

Hypothetically
  • the economy may grow faster with regime of initial protection that is gradually reduced
  • subsidised prices may be necessary until income distribution becomes fairer
  • industries with large externalities and economics of scale may be better in public hands until technology changes
Econophysics might finally

  • divorce ideology from economics
  • make economics more realistics

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