SOS What NEXT?

What NEXT?

For:

1. Oil (think it will go up higher and then collapse like in 2008)
2. Gold (think it will go to USD1500 per oz and then a meaningful correction 10-30%)
3. Emerging Market Stock Market - corrections (due to overbought position)
4. Developed Market Stock Market (will do better than EM, could be down but lower down lower than EM)
5. Agriculture commodities (will have a meaningful correction)

This is the prediction of a few economist, MISH, Prechter and Gary Shilling.

MyView

I am more interested on how the derivatives plays out. In USA, there is about USD43 trillion derivatives are marked to model and their losses not reflected in the books, like Citibank, with USD1 trillion not shown the real value.

Of course, what will happen to countries that print lots of money? And countries that keeping the interest at near zero? Most likely it will cause CARRY TRADE. Why not, borrowing at zero costs, any investment will give a good return.