Time flies. It has been a year since the portfolio of Inflationist and Deflationist were set up about last Oct 2009.
This is what I have discovered to-date result:
Inflationist is up 10%
Deflationist is down 10%.
Of course in between, i have discovered occassionally deflationist performed better and vice versa, however, as at today, 22 Oct 2010, Inflationist outperformed Deflationist.
MyView
From my observation, the market goes up and down like yo-yo over the last one year, very uncertain, one minute you have PIIGS drowning, another minute you have QE2. So, the short term trend is hard to see at the moment. However, one thing for sure, unemployment did not subsides in US for the last 2 year. Excess houses in the market remains. No new regulation on Derivatives. CPI is pretty tame, hardly any inflation.
In conclusion, the jury is out there, but ROUND 1 is won by Inflationist. It always depend where your starting points, if i start at the peak DJIA13,000 in 2007, now it is only 11,400 and dropped 12%, and if you start in the peak of 2000 at about 14,000, you have loss actually 19%. But if you start at March 2009 at 6500, you have gain about 75%. In gold terms, it is UP about 30%. (gold went up from USD1000 per oz to USD1350 per oz)
In short, it always depends on your starting line.
This is what I have discovered to-date result:
Inflationist is up 10%
Deflationist is down 10%.
Of course in between, i have discovered occassionally deflationist performed better and vice versa, however, as at today, 22 Oct 2010, Inflationist outperformed Deflationist.
MyView
From my observation, the market goes up and down like yo-yo over the last one year, very uncertain, one minute you have PIIGS drowning, another minute you have QE2. So, the short term trend is hard to see at the moment. However, one thing for sure, unemployment did not subsides in US for the last 2 year. Excess houses in the market remains. No new regulation on Derivatives. CPI is pretty tame, hardly any inflation.
In conclusion, the jury is out there, but ROUND 1 is won by Inflationist. It always depend where your starting points, if i start at the peak DJIA13,000 in 2007, now it is only 11,400 and dropped 12%, and if you start in the peak of 2000 at about 14,000, you have loss actually 19%. But if you start at March 2009 at 6500, you have gain about 75%. In gold terms, it is UP about 30%. (gold went up from USD1000 per oz to USD1350 per oz)
In short, it always depends on your starting line.
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