SOS Malaysia Brain Drain - a stale subject

STORY #1

Push factors
written by Wil ,

February 25, 2010
I am a member of the Malaysian disapora currently working for the Australian government in a senior position, having been educated in Australia with a bachelors and two masters degrees. Yes, an outdated education system, untendable crime rates, racial discrimination in all levels of society and the increasingly bigoted government are all factors why I've chosen not to return to Malaysia. Notice I did not mention money, standard of living (healthcare, housing affordability) etc. Neither am I talking about the opportunities Australia offers compared to Malaysia. This is simply because the PUSH factors from Malaysia are primary reason for the brain/people drain, not the PULL factors from other countries. I am close to giving up hope on the land of my birth.

STORY #2

When Bibi worked in an electronics factory in north Perak, little did she foresee marrying her expatriate quality control engineer. After his conversion to Islam and their subsequent marriage, he attempted unsuccessfully to gain permanent residence. He claims to have spent a small fortune on lawyers, on 'proof' and photographs for the application process, and several trips to the immigration offices to be 'verified'. He claims that one low ranking government official even offered him a birth certificate for RM60,000, as a pre-cursor to a 'red' identity card, which would help facilitate the PR status. When Bibi's husband's work permit expired, he attempted to form a trading company. He travelled to the border every few months to renew his immigration-social visit pass, while he explored this avenue. He was ineligible for a sole proprietorship and although he could form a limited company with 51 percent bumiputra ownership, he found that for one reason or another, it was not viable. Local partners wanted maximum profits for little or no work. A Caucasian, he was seen as a cash cow, he says. In addition, the Perak town they lived in was very provincial. Had he lived in Kuala Lumpur or Penang, he could be anonymous, like the expatriates married to Malay women in these cities. As an expat convert in his local town, the Malays expected him to uphold Malay values and scrutinized his every move, right down to his religious obligations. He was disillusioned with living in a goldfish bowl and both he and Bibi left for Europe.

STORY #3

When Ida graduated from Australia with a chemical engineering degree, she worked in a chemical plant in Selangor. Her friendship with a chemist blossomed into love, with talk of marriage. There was one problem - Anthony was a Catholic. He dutifully presented himself at the mosque for agama lessons in preparation for his conversion. The imam never appeared for their pre-arranged appointments. Frustrated with being let down repeatedly, he stopped going. His lucky break came when he was offered a job in a neighboring country. Ida joined him. She was free from parental and family pressures, he from the religious zealots. They married. He retained his faith, she remained a Muslim. They started a family and have since emigrated to New Zealand. Recently, she embraced Catholicism.


STORY #4

Yes, I Have Leftwritten by Gone Malaysian , February 19, 2010

Yes, I am also one of those who left. I had no choice. I had the grades but the quote didnt allow me to pursue my studies locally. So I had to beg for a bank loan and pursue my studies. To Mamakthir, you can have whatever meager stuff the government throws out to you. To Loyal Citizen, only low class citizens, who cant do much because their poor, stay behind. The high class, rich people all have PR in other countries so that when things go bad in Malaysia, they can just fly their family to safety. But the low class people like you, will stay and suffer.

SOME STATISTICS

According to a recent parliamentary report, 140,000 left the country, probably for good, in 2007. Between March 2008 and August 2009, that figure more than doubled to 305,000 as talented people pulled up stakes, apparently disillusioned by rising crime, a tainted judiciary, human rights abuses, an outmoded education system and other concerns.

MyView

From the 4 stories told above, what can we say more. That is only the tip of the iceberg. I believe, the brain drain will escalate in the future if nothing is done on the problems (as expressed in the 4 stories above).

I believe the mass Malaysians, who pays their due deserve a better government, don't you think so? On top of that, there is certain criterion that 30% Bumi must be present at all level of company (broking firms) and all Government Linked Companies must have a Bumi CEOs [not an effective way to do business]. I do appreciate if someone can enlighten me on this subject, what other countries on earth have such a practice, where there is discriminations among their Malaysians who happens to be in different races.

SOS ETP, NEM, NEP

ETP - Enough Talk Please

NEM - Not Enough Man

NEP - Never Ending Politicking

Well, if we do a study or research on our neighbour coutries or previously known as 5 Tigers, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia (40 yrs ago), you will realise, Malaysia is the only country that turns into a kitten.

Well, almost most of them start from the same starting line, i.e. same level of GDP, today, we rank #5 among the 5 tigers. #1 has a GDP per capita of USD37,000 and #4 is USD17,000 and guess what what are we in USD8,000 per capita.

Hmmm, the writing is on the wall, we have to ask these few questions:

• Are we not as smart


• Are we not as hardworking


• Are we not rich in resources


• Are we at the less strategic place


• Are we not attracting talents

Wonder if we have done a study to find out why so many Malaysian migrates to other country, I think the answer is quite clear, we are just living in denials. Coming up with ETP, NEAC, NEM, MACC, you name it, will not solve the problems. If it is so simple, a company may have easily successful when coming up with slogans.

We have to ask ourselves, with these "projects"

• Will we be SMARTER


• Will the people be more hardworking


• Will our resources deplete further


• will will lose our strategic location


• will we attract talents or prevent migration

MyView

Let us look at ourselves before we make any comparison with our neighbour countries.

Common sense will tell us that why so many skilled Malaysian do not stay, because:

• It does not provide "sufficient opportunity"


• It education standard is "not high"


• Its judicial is "what money can buy"


• Its safety and security is "inadequate"


• Its major policies do not provide "meritocracy"

Are we taken for a ride by our existing Government? Do we deserve a lot more than the existing Government can provide? How many times has the Government proven to set policy based on meritocracy?

We have MAS, look as SIA

We have MU (Malaysia University) and Singapore has SU (Singapore University) look at their ranking now.

We have MSC and it is a failure

We have Proton, Korea has Hyundai

The list will go on and on. What are we MISSING here? Has our government with ALL its intelligents not able to KNOW the PROBLEM, if not, what is the SOLUTION?

SOS Fact or Myths

On one SIDE............

Right now, it seems like a very similar scenario is unfolding on the financial "battlefield." On the one side, those "writing the code" of public perception are yelling "CHARGE!" into equities. See news items below for confirmation:

• "US Stocks Long-Term Slump Near End... Stocks may stay in a tight range for several more years as they near the end of a bearish era." (Bloomberg)
• "Billionaire Lambasts Dour Sentiment, Eyes Bull Market. Sentiment may be sour but a bull market in US stocks that roared in September has more upside." (Reuters)
• "Warren Buffett: Forget Gold, Buy Stocks" (Tycoon Report)
• "Cramer's Mad Money: The Market Is Cheap, Cheap, Cheap. The predictions of the bears... are looking more and more ridiculous and untrue by the day." (CNBC)

On the other SIDE ..............

says investors have been "voting with their feet," pulling their money out of US equities for 24 straight weeks. In the past week alone they withdrew $623 million from US stock funds, and invested $1.45 billion in overseas equity funds instead.

As for why, the article covers the gamut of reasonable suggestions: The slew of confidence-denting scandals and fraud, two stock market crashes in the last ten years, and the fact that insider selling just reached a "breathtakingly bearish ratio of 1169:1, i.e. insiders are selling 1,169 shares for every one that they're buying."

One thing doesn't add up though: If investors are so rattled by the instability of US stocks, then how do they rationalize swapping the one for the way-more-unstable sectors of foreign markets and high-yield debt?


MyView

Facts:

1. Net outflow for 24 straight weeks in US equities;
2. in past week, USD634 mil withdrew from US equities and USD1.45 bil invested in overseas equities; and
   
3. Selling ratio of 1169:1, insider is selling 1,169 shares for every one on buying

It seems that the fact of more insider sellers than buyers as shown by the fact does not correlate with the continuous increase in the US equities, so is the net withdrawals from 24 straight weeks in the US equities.

Reality:

1. US equities moves up despite the facts mentioned above (on a thinner volume, of course)

Anology:

1. This situation is not new, when explained that it was proven that earnings improvements does not has much impact on the direction of the stock markets because the stock market's trend is influence by "cumulative emotions of investors";
2. Sooner or later the fact will catch up with the "
   

SOS Capacity Utilization

MV = PQ
Money Supply & Credit x Velocity = Price x Quantity Demand

Quantity Demand will determine the utilisation rate. If the utilisation rate drop, it indicates demand is slowing, which is shown by CPI. When CPI drop, utilisation rate normally drop as well.

When there is high unemployment rate, people is losing confident of the economy and due to the confidence level is low, the velocity of money will slow down, i.e. bringing the price down, which equates to deflation.

MyView

Another tool measure whether the economy is going into deflation is the utilisation rate. If it drop, CPI will drop as well.

SOS New Discovery of USA statistics

The manifestation of a deleveraging economy is as follows:-

1. Debt destruction
2. Bankruptcy
3. banking credit contraction

Fed total assets
2007/8 is USD0.4 trillion
2010 is USD2.4 trillion (after buying up few trillions of toxic IOUs)

USA debt to GDP
1930 to 1970 = 170% of GDP
1975 to 2010 = 380% of GDP (expansion of debt)


World market debt is about USD52 trillion
World GDP is about USD60 trillion (equivalent to "world revenue")
World derivatives not disclosed in the bank's book about USD600-800 trillion.

MyView

Based on the said statistics, it is like, a company (world) revenue is about USD60 trillion, with a debt on sales of USD52 trillion or 86% of total sale of the company. On top of that, the company has about USD600 trillion worth of derivatives (i.e. 10 times of its total sales not disclosed in the books)

What will happen to a company with a debt of USD52 trillion over a sale of USD60 trillion, it means a lot of sale are debt created, not collected yet or unable to recover. If we do a debtor turnover it is about 316 days, which indicates an unhealthy debtors turnover, i.e. may be lots of debts not collectable.

As for derivatives, it is mainly created by the financial institutions like CDOs, CDS, MDS, CLOs, Forex, which does not actually contributes to the real economy of product and services, it is a product of its own for the financial systems (Ponzi Scheme) or better know as weapons of mass destruction.

Hence, we can expect 2 implosions, one the USD52 trillion market debt and two, the derivatives.

The long term consequences that is clear is the deleveraging (like Japan), clearing all the toxic "loans" or "debts" which will take many years. (Japan took 20 yrs and still on going). The property and stocks in Japan deflated substantially from 70 to 90% todate.

The question now is what will happen to USA, which has similar characteristics of over gearing (creating property bubble)? Is it an isolated case, no impact to the world? Think again.

SOS Update of Portfolio

Time flies. It has been a year since the portfolio of Inflationist and Deflationist were set up about last Oct 2009.

This is what I have discovered to-date result:

Inflationist is up 10%
Deflationist is down 10%.

Of course in between, i have discovered occassionally deflationist performed better and vice versa, however, as at today, 22 Oct 2010, Inflationist outperformed Deflationist.

MyView

From my observation, the market goes up and down like yo-yo over the last one year, very uncertain, one minute you have PIIGS drowning, another minute you have QE2. So, the short term trend is hard to see at the moment. However, one thing for sure, unemployment did not subsides in US for the last 2 year. Excess houses in the market remains. No new regulation on Derivatives. CPI is pretty tame, hardly any inflation.

In conclusion, the jury is out there, but ROUND 1 is won by Inflationist. It always depend where your starting points, if i start at the peak DJIA13,000 in 2007, now it is only 11,400 and dropped 12%, and if you start in the peak of 2000 at about 14,000, you have loss actually 19%. But if you start at March 2009 at 6500, you have gain about 75%. In gold terms, it is UP about 30%. (gold went up from USD1000 per oz to USD1350 per oz)

In short, it always depends on your starting line.

SOS Currency War is World War III

Where is the amminution?

"US dollar printing the dollar and inflate the rest of the world, surrender now or else?"IMF chairman said.

Can they get away with it so easily?

Take all bankers from HSBC, Barlays, Citi, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and put them into a prison, guess what will happen? Nothing, actually, the world will be a better place to be without them.

MyView

Will the US dollar become toilet paper eventually?

What about the irrecoverable IOUs issued in the tune of USD100 trillions?

What will happen next if US continue to implement QEII?

Can the Fed infinitely issue new IOUs against the toxic IOUs?

Can Fed, who is owned by private owners become "bankrupt"?

SOS Derivatives Uncovered?

The world derivatives is about USD800 trillion, US has about say USD350 trillion. The IOUs derivatives created is easily exceed USD100 trillion and the real worth is less than USD20 trillion. There is about say USD80 trillion to be written off the book. So, how much more can the FED buy up the toxic IOUs?

Chances are high that all these Derivatives IOUs will hit the banks book, one way or another, sooner or later.

If reviving a sick economy by buying up toxic IOUs, then US has no problem at all. Just replace all these toxic IOUs. Can the QEII so simple, just replace it and consumer confidence will comes back? Well, then, how do we explain the

• high unemployment rate of 9.6 to 10%
• unsold housing stock of up to 2 million units
• contracting bank credit
• foreclosure mess

MyView

When a country allows the country to have easy money, it is inevitable that some sector is inflated, in this case, the US housing and commercial real estate is INFLATED, not only by the conventional mortgage loans, but also the SYNTHETIC loans which is about say 5-10 times larger than the conventional loans.

The synthetic loans is non other than CDOs, MGS, CLOs, CDS, etc, say if the housing industry is USD20 trillion, the derivatives will be say USD100 trillion.

For the economy to function again, all the toxic synthetic and non performing conventional loan need to be written off the books from the banks, until then, it will be like another JAPAN, only this is 10 worst, because, after major DEFLATION on all assets class, US will likely hit by high inflation.

SOS ETP Can or Nout?

Singapore has ERP, we also have ETP, Enter The Party.

Sorry, it is Economic Transformation Programs, valued at RM1,400 billion.

1. Government 8%
2. GLC 32%
3. Private sector 60%

Total GLC's

1. Shareholders funds = RM140bil
2. Debts = RM38 bil
3. Market Cap = RM266 bil
4. So, GLC has to come out in next 7/8 years RM454 bil investment.
   

MyView

The American call their spaceman astronauts, Russian call them cosmonouts, China called it taikonauts, we the Malaysian called it can or naut.

Well, mathematically it is hard to believe it is achievable. Unless someone can clarify how is it done? What about the software to operate the assets? Can or nout.

SOS Negativity

Flip through a newspaper and most likely you find the word in the news. Why newspapers love to report on negativity. Is it because it sells? Surely there is some good reasons behind this.

MyView

If we are not careful, we become the product of our environment without being aware of it. Life today is much more hectic then long time ago, more cars on the road, more people in the shopping complex, more demands for electronic stuff, more long waiting in restaurant, more long list of desires etc.

And it is so unfortunate good books or good news don't sell. It is also harder to find a "good" book.

So, we must be careful of what we read or see, its underlying truth may not be there. Morality also dropped over the last few decades. It has come to a stage of irreparable.

SOS Disaster is Looming

Have we forgotten the world GDP of USD60 trillion and derivatives of USD800 trillion?

Disaster is looming soon, read this by Prechter:

Everybody always talks about the federal government spending more money as “stimuli.” It's ridiculous. Every dollar the government spends is a drag on the economy. It has to come out of someone else's hide: either by direct payment from the taxpayer or by borrowing the money, which means it can't be lent to a private business. The more the government spends and the more the government borrows, the weaker the economy gets. The weaker the economy is, the less chance it has to pay off the principal and interest that the debtors owe. If public servants’ behavior were any different, then the outcome may be different. But studying world history tells you that governments always take from the economy until it's completely destroyed. It's sad, but it's pretty predictable. You don't see someone coming into California and saying, “Let's clean all this up. Let's cut the budget by 60 or 70 percent and start paying our bonds off so we're completely out of debt in 15 years.” It's easy to do, anybody could do it. But they won't.

MyView What will happen when the debt impode i.e. trillions of IOUs that cannot be paid back? How did this IOUs or debt comes about, the conventional sub prime mortgage/credit cards/car loans/ educational loans & the innovative financial instruments call "derivatives". Anyone know how much is it? Are they between USD20-30 trillion? Well, it does pay to find out, first, is this figure is a fact or myth. If it is a fact, what is the consequences?

SOS Shocking Discoveries!

Edward Ulysses Cafe

Barclays Global Investors Holdings and State Street Corporation are one of the top 10 shareholders of banking counters in NYSE.

I live in the heart of America, and am haunted by the saying:
"Evil succeeds because good men do nothing." by Edmund Burke.

Albert Einstein had another way of saying it:
"The world is a dangerous place, not because of those who do evil, but because of those who look on and do nothing."

So I do what I can.

MyView

Education actually starts after school. Most children is bombarded with all sorts of information during their schooling years, sadly, i think 20-30% are useful, the rest, frankly, they need to be unlearned, and a lot of time is required to unlearn what is learned over the early years of life especially when we are young, there is not sufficient for one to "debate" what is fact or fiction.

The two excepts by Einstein and Edmund principally point to a conclusion, "the world is not fair" or "we dig our own grave" or "even we try to be good person, it is not easy". As part of the society, normally we are "at the losing end" of a grand scale of actions taken by the government of the day or we "not even aware" that we are being "CHEATED".

Even after finding out that you have been cheated, you "may" be helpless to change the situation.

The moral of the story here can be perceived as follows: one is to "forgive and forget the current situation" and the other is to "fight for your own rights or it will be taken away" or "just do what you can like what Eisntein said" or "clarify the truth to the rest". There is no wrong or right in your action or inaction, end of the day, or in the long run, it will rebalance by itself, with or without your action or inaction.

SOS Discover the Secrets of Einstein

When I examine myself and my methods of thought, I come to the conclusion that the gift of fantasy has meant more to me than any talent for abstract, positive thinking.
Albert Einstein

"Knowing others is intelligence; knowing yourself is true wisdom. Mastering others is strength; mastering yourself is true power. If you realize that you have enough, you are truly rich."
— Laozi (Tao Te Ching)

You cannot open a book without learning something.
Confucius

"Life is a Journey, not a Destination, learn and apply along with the universal principles of honesty, kind and patient" Somebody

MyView

Actually the secrets of life is already here hundreds of years ago and has been documented. What one need to do is to find the right information and learn and apply them in our daily life, along with the guiding morality principles, one will have a purposeful life, but not forgetting the "right" cultivation path.

SOS Foreclosure problems in US of A

The problems associated with a clogged foreclosure system continue to mount. Foreclosures in 23 states have been halted by major banks after allegations surfaced of various illegal practices.

Why? When one mortgage loan have one original loan, and 3 CDOs stacking up, no wonder they cannot establish who has the actual legal rights over house.

Janet said,

The SEC is a failed regulator.Checking documents to make sure the paperwork is in order is not an optional step when securities are created and underwritten, and underwriters should be held accountable.Unfortunately, flawed paperwork is far from the only problem with the securitization process.The preponderance of evidence indicates a massive, widespread, interconnected Ponzi scheme with various types of concurrent fraud.So far our regulators, court system, and Congress have all failed in their duties.

MyView

Who make the policy and allow CDOs and CDS? Who is the regulator to ensure the investor is protected? Who ensure things are done right?

SOS Flash Crash

Don't Let September's Rally Trick You

Flash Crash Findings

On May 6 the Dow opened at 10,862.22. Its intraday low came in nearly a thousand points lower at 9,869.62. And the closing price was 10,520.32. This roller coaster was immediately named the "flash crash." And it left many pundits demanding an explanation as to what might have caused this unusual event.

A mutual fund's single sell order was behind the infamous "flash crash."
Now the findings of the SEC and CFTC are in. And they're very frightening: Nothing special had happened! Yes, there was a $4.1 billion stock-futures sell order ... 75,000 E-mini contracts that mimic the movement of the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index ... by a mutual fund company. Although relatively large, it was a normal hedging activity using a computer-generated program.
But since the market was already nervous due to Europe's debt crisis, this order pushed the market into a tailspin.

This finding is exactly what I had expected ...
In my June 9 Money and Markets column, I called the flash crash a warning crack, typically occurring at the end of a huge bull move. It was indeed a warning sign that the bullish forces are fading and a hallmark of a forthcoming bear market.

I also told you to take the flash crash as a harbinger of what this coming bear market will have in store for us. And last month's gain only makes my argument all the stronger.

Best wishes,

Claus

MyView

In May 6, DJIA dropped 1,000 points in a day. Will it repeat? What does it tell? Should we be in this volatile market?

SOS Achieving Life Balance

"No other success can compensate for failure in the home" taught David O. McKay

According to Stephen Covey, we must achieve the 4 dimensions of our life in order to achieve life balance.

1. Mind - Vision


2. Body - Discipline


3. Heart - Passion


4. Soul - Conscience (in line with principles of life)

Once these 4 areas are achieved, one is able to achieve private victory, i.e. the sky is the limit, or another way to phrase it, you have found your VOICE.

MyView

If we want to simplify it, it would be:

Learn & Apply, however, between the learn and apply, we need to have the right tools, we have to have a vision, discipline to achive the vision with passion and in line with our "way of life" or "conscience". Only when one achieve in all aspects of one's life (home, work, society, spiritual), he or she will achieve "Private Victory".

To put is simply, one must learn and apply, like "theory & practice" but must put in the right ingredients "vision, discipline, passion" +"in line with one's way of life".

www.falundafa.org

SOS USA Failed Banks

Year No of bank failed 2000-2006 24 2007 3 2008 25 2009 140 2010 (up to 24Sept) 127 Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932010_bank_failures_in_the_United_States

About 1,471 Hedge Fund failed since financial crisis in 2008.n (represent about 15%)