Are these people CRYING WOLF?
- Robert Prechter
- Harry Dent
- Gary Shillings
- Micheal Shedlock
- Weiss Martin
MyView
In the investment world, one must always be able to differentiate between fact and opinion. Fact are supported by actual figures or data, but sometimes, if not look as the whole picture, it might be misleading as well.
So, in order to find out the truth, one have to ask these few questions
- What causes the crisis in the first place? Overspending? OverDebt?
- Why Housing Bubble?
- How much/big is the Derivatives market?
- Did the derivatives has any effects on the global market? In a good way or adverse way, eg. CDO, MBS, CDS, etc?
- What did the Government of US did?
- Does its actions solve the cause of the proplems? Or it is just delay it?
- Can US get away from a further bigger Crisis than 2008?
On a micro perspective, when a company is over geared, there is nothing much it can do other than deleverage. It has to bite the bullet. Look at Japan, any additional cash is used to par down its debt, instead of what their government hope that they use the money to expand.
Most likely, US is walking the similar road Japan has walked, only it is doubly tough, because, it is saddle with sovereign debt, budget deficit, trade deficit and bank is not giving more credits, period.
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