Monday, August 16, 2010

SOS CPI


CPI

Housing (rents) - 43% of CPI - gradual accelerating downward
- 16% of CPI - Food - mild downwards
- 15% of CPI - Transportation - flat (tie with energy cost)
- 26% of CPI - more on services - Medicals, insurance, etc no major direction

So, we have to look at the Japan model (mild deflation, due to balance sheet recession, only encounter by Japan) and 1930 Depression (global debt crisis) model.

MyView

Japan model (lost 2 decades) is best case for USA because the world continue to grow. Whereas USA problem and Europe add together, created a much more problems i.e. big part of global contributions. Hence, going forward, we can expect MORE adverse implication on USA than Japan.

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