SOS Fundamental vs Technical?

Baltic stock market goes up 120% after it takes the opposite stands compare to DJIA increase of 74%. Did massive stimulus actually good for the economy?

1. Can fundamental analysis compared with technical analysis?


2. Is fundamental analysis more objective then analysis?


3. Are there subjectivity in fundamental analysis or technical analysis?


4. Is there guidelines or rules in fundamental analysis?


5. Does fundamental analysis provide better probabilitic forecast than technical analysis?

Find your answer here, by Robert Prechter.

Question

I have seen CNBC interview Steve Hochberg a couple times now. It seems that the interviewer is always trying to discredit him and Elliott wave. That's not usually the case when another guest suggests a bearish future. Am I interpreting that correctly? If so, I assume you guys are used to skeptics, but how do you address the argument that Elliott wave analysis is too subjective for reliable projections?

Answer

I always ask, “compared to what?” There is no group more subjective than conventional analysts who look at the same “fundamental” news event -- a war, the level of interest rates, the P/E ratio, GDP reports, you name it -- and come up with countless opposing conclusions. They generally don’t even bother to study the data. Show me a forecasting method that is totally objective or contains no human interpretation. There is no such thing, even in a black box. To answer your question more specifically, though, properly there should be no subjectivity in interpreting Elliott waves patterns. There is a set of rules and guidelines for that interpretation. Interpretation gives you only the most probable scenario(s), not a sure one. But people mislabel probabilistic forecasting as subjectivity. And subjectivity or bias can ruin that value, just as in any other approach. Sometimes we screw up. But in contrast to the outrageously improbable (if not downright false) wave interpretations or other types of forecasts we often see from others, we are as close to an objective service as you’re going to find. We hire analysts who know the rules of Elliott cold.

MyView

Can we actually trust financial analyst these days. I read an international financial analyst wrote a report for a listed company. One of the charts is showing the past two years of the broker's target price vs the actual share price. And oddly, 95% of the time of the target price was not achieved. Never mind about whether it is achieve or not, but the fact the target price changes from RM12.00 each to RM3.00 each within 2 years period is astonishing.

It speak how much about fundamental analysis, the chart proved that its forecast projections using fundamental analysis with linear mindset is a fallacy.

So can we said that fundamental analysis is more objective or technical analysis?

Don't believe what you see or what you here, observe, examine and experience it, trust your own instinct.