Sunday, March 7, 2010

SOS When?


When what?

When will the DJIA collapse?

April, May or June?
When it is still in huge debt
When consumptions is unsustainable
When too much of toxic debts issues in a form of derivatives
When debt to GDP is more than 300%
When credit collapsed
When savings starts instead of overspending
When PIIGS collapse, UK too
When unemployment is high
When not many sees it coming?
Now who is talking about the unsustainability of the rebound of DJIA from Mar 2009 to Mar 2010?
  1. Jim Rogers
  2. Peter Schiff
  3. Marc Faber
  4. Robert Prechter
  5. Michael Shedlock
  6. Max Keiser
  7. Gerald Celente
  8. Gary Shillings
  9. Noureil Roubini
  10. Steve Keen
  11. Janet Travokali

MyView

The question is the risk reward. What is the chances of UP for DJIA to 14,000

What is the chances of DOWN for DJIA to 6,000

Now it is 10,600 (4 March 2010)

Chances 14000 - say 30%

Chance 6000 - say 60%

Well, of course we bet on the 60%, that goes without saying. Why not the other way round? Take a pick, it would be fun. If we strongly think DOWN chances is high, then SHORT the Market, why not try TWM @ 22.50 on 4 March 2010 and have a look within the next one year or shorter.

Historical High is 116
Historical Low is 22.50

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