SOS Bono vs Brown

Bono (Ireland rock star and private equity fund partner) named as worst investors in America.

Gordon Brown sold few hundred tonnes of gold at its historical low of USD254 per oz years ago.

Demand & Supply (oil) vs Demand & Supply of financial intruments (oil)

Demand and supply of commodities via leveraging, shorting, options, does not in anyway reflect the actual demand of supply of oil.

Read this:

The result of massive financiarization of oil and commodities, in 2008, was shockingly clear. Exactly the same way that a 2% growth of the economy since March 2009 drove a 60% growth in most equity and commodity prices (over 90% for oil), the 3.5% fall in world oil demand through 2008-2009, now bottoming, drove a 75% fall in day traded oil prices.

MyView

Just like stocks, the prices of stocks does not reflect the real intrinsic value of the business. Similary, the prices of oil or commodities does not reflect the real intrinsic value of the oil or commodities or any other assets traded in the stock exchanges or commodities exchanges.

Hence, stock prices seldom reflect the real intrinsic value, it depends on the social mood & actions by its environment. It will be overvalued when the mood is positive and undervalued when the mood is negative.

So, in order to be a good investor, one has to read the social mood. How? Any tools? Does experience help? Does gut filling helps? Just imagine, 95% of the learned economist did not predict the collapse in 2008, what is your odds to outperform these economists?