Thursday, February 26, 2009

SOS US Dollars


Why?


  • too huge a trade deficit and budget deficit

  • continuous printing money via stimulus plans and guarantees

  • too huge of toxic assets like CDS (USD60 trillion), CDO (USD5 trillion), Derivatives (USD350 trillion), mortgage market (USD20 trillion)

  • no more options as interest rate is near zero

  • consumption collapse due to unemployment

  • government intervention, deepen the crisis

  • continue spending and printing money

Then why is US dollars appreciated against all major currency in 2008 except Yen?



  • deleveraging

  • other countries like Europe is similar trouble

  • unwinding of carry trade

How long will the US dollars continue to hold?



  • this is a trillion dollar question, some expert say less than a year, some say, 2 yrs but certainty is 100%

MyView



  • US dollars will collapse in less than a year, by March 2010 (my view only)

  • Gold will soar to USD2000 per oz by March 2010



















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