Monday, February 2, 2009

SOS facts & figures


Jan 31, Roubini said debt provision will goes as high as USD3.6 trillion globally and US stocks still has about 20% downside (to around 6000 points) - his view is to follow Sweden method, nationalised bank, sell toxic assets, recapitalised banks, when recovery coming, sell the banks to private sector.

Feb 2, China unemployment may rise to 20million

Feb 2, Derivatives OTC end of Dec is USD684 trillion (myview is this has growned 50% since end of 2007, an increase of about USD250 trillion, the world casino is ripe for meltdown)

Feb 2, Debate on USD819 billion economic stimulus package by Obama administration (myview: it will be pass, the debate is just a show, just like Geithner being sorry for his tax evasion, we is pardened, the questioning is just a show)

Feb 2, Dow Jones dropped about 100 points to 7900 points at around 11.17 pm Malaysian time (myview - I believe it will dropped further to around 6400 points in less than 6 months)
Feb 2, UK properties expected to slide to 40% if not support from government on the property market (myview - I believe this is optimistic, it can easily touch 50% to 60%)
Feb 2, Gold price is about USD915 per oz
Jan 30, Sovieat Union spent USD211 billion to prop up its currency, which has lost more than 50% since the crisis. Total reserve is about USD850 billion
MyView
Most countries is racing to zero on its interest rates. And lots of banks are insolvent, and central banks keeps on printing money, the only conclusion I have at the moment, gold price will appreciate against fiat money, the more that country print, the higher the price of gold in term of that currency, period.
As for relatively whose currency is going to appreciate, my bet would be Japanese Yen, as they have already in zero interest for so long and enjoying undervalue currency which helps their exports for so long. Hence, relatively, Yen is going to appreciate against US dollar, period.
Stocks going to be in volatile state for a while, as most countries is still struggling to find the solutions to their problem, hence keep short term cash(myview - the irony part of most of the stimulus package is going to add salt to the injury, and it will even cause a more severe economic crisis which is beyond repair, good luck to USA, UK, Europe)

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