SOS Bono vs Brown

Bono (Ireland rock star and private equity fund partner) named as worst investors in America.

Gordon Brown sold few hundred tonnes of gold at its historical low of USD254 per oz years ago.

Demand & Supply (oil) vs Demand & Supply of financial intruments (oil)

Demand and supply of commodities via leveraging, shorting, options, does not in anyway reflect the actual demand of supply of oil.

Read this:

The result of massive financiarization of oil and commodities, in 2008, was shockingly clear. Exactly the same way that a 2% growth of the economy since March 2009 drove a 60% growth in most equity and commodity prices (over 90% for oil), the 3.5% fall in world oil demand through 2008-2009, now bottoming, drove a 75% fall in day traded oil prices.

MyView

Just like stocks, the prices of stocks does not reflect the real intrinsic value of the business. Similary, the prices of oil or commodities does not reflect the real intrinsic value of the oil or commodities or any other assets traded in the stock exchanges or commodities exchanges.

Hence, stock prices seldom reflect the real intrinsic value, it depends on the social mood & actions by its environment. It will be overvalued when the mood is positive and undervalued when the mood is negative.

So, in order to be a good investor, one has to read the social mood. How? Any tools? Does experience help? Does gut filling helps? Just imagine, 95% of the learned economist did not predict the collapse in 2008, what is your odds to outperform these economists?

SOS Main Street vs Wall Street

US used to be contributed by Main Street

US now mainly contributed by Wall Street

• Clinton deregulate, continue in full gear by Bush and Obama
• Credit default swaps is built
• Concentration not on productions of goods or services, but financial products which do not add value to the REAL economy, is basically of music chair system
• Current recovery is fundamentally based on new money printed by the entire world, and create other bubble or prolong the toxic assets to go bust or in short, debasing the currency
• The real productive capacity is gone in developed world
• In ordinary business, when market slows, spent less or pull back on spending, not more stimulus
• Per Gerald Celente, if he is president, support local goods, not from China and stop eating junk (not genetically modified and, spiritually, people must reconnect
  

MyView

• Perception vs Truth in Economy, Truth will prevail when perception ran out of gas (when, nobody knows, as long as government pump in more perceptions, people will be misled longer at their own expense).
• Decision made today by policy makers will be the seeds for the future generation, hence, look back 10 to 20 years back, what had the government done right and wrong then you will see the result TODAY
• Prepare yourself, in worst situation, one will be prepared to handle crisis.
  

SOS Great music

SOS Tsunami

According to the people that experience the tsunami in 2004, they will say, the first wave was catastrophic, the second wave was the killer.

Well, we have went through the first one since 2007 Oct to 2009 Mac, where DJIA has dropped about 50% from 14,000, and it climb back to near 11,000 since Mac 2009 to March 2010.

Will there be a second wave, absolutely. It is a matter of timing. Q1, Q2, Q3 or Q4 of 2010, take your pick. Until you see the second one, the first one is child play.

Better get your safety gear ready, when it comes again, better be prepared.

One way is to SHORT the market. Why? US is going through a deflation depression. Robert Sheller's think the double deep is probable. So is Robert Prechter, or Harry Dent, or Gary Shillings.

SOS Gem Of Life

What is a gem of life? A cantonese series? Some of the characteristics found in the show:

1. greed


2. pride


3. fame


4. revenge


5. glory


6. comfort


7. lust


8. conflict


9. competition


10. cheating


11. corrupt


12. hatred


13. jealousy


14. lie


15. outsmart


16. achievements

Well it is just a series, but I believe also happen in real life. Morality is down the drain. So what is it got to so with Finance world today? Well, there are not far away from this series. That's why power corrupt.

Look at what happen in USA during the crisis, the taxpayer is paying for the sin of the too big to fail. When they gain, they keep it, when they fail, they get the bailout. The elite really get away with crime.

SOS End of the World

Are we towards end of the world as far as financial markets? Nope, just pure deflation in many major assets, ranging from financial assets to commodities to properties, stock markets, derivatives etc.

Just look at the poor guy up there, can he handle the DEBT? No doubt about it, he will be crushed sooner or later if not for the stimulus (extending the debt life, but not improving the assets value of securities). Once the stimulus dies off, the DEBT will come crushing down faster than you can handle, exactly like Sept 2008.

So, be careful especially if you are highly invested.

MyView

I have been warning of the eventure FreeFall since August 2009. I am totally wrong in timing wise, but there is a saying in investment, one have to preserve its capital, failing which, all his gains and capital will be wipe out the moment the Tsunami comes.

If you are prepared for the Tsunami, even you are one year early, that is fine, at least you won't be drowned when it comes, you already have a head start. That is the whole idea, I rather be wrong for a year or two in timing, but, I am still alive when the party is over. Until then, have fun with your party, but the question is, would a drunk person knows how to stop, especially the tap is free?

SOS Freefall

Greece makes up of only 2% of Europe GDP. What about the entire PIIGS. Total of 15%? Well, your guess is as good as mine.

Will there be a freefall of stock markets? Yes. When? Well, it follows like the nature. When a fruit is ripe, it will fall. Of course, there are certain way you can keep it longer up there by slowing down the rate of letting it ripe.

Will it be one month, one year, or two years? If you have good holding power of 2 years, an investment today can give you a 100% return. Try TWM, 2x gearing of Russell 2000 small stocks that short the market, currently at USD20.50 per share.

As at 19 March 2010 - TWM @ USD20.50, will look back to see if it double in 2 years, i.e. 19 March 2012.