SOS Portfolio D & I May Update

Updated on 7 May 2010

Portfolio Deflation +2.46%

Portfolio Inflation -2.41%

Date of inception of Portfolios = Oct 2009.

SOS Derivatives 605T

Derivatives

1. Total Derivatives currently is USD605trillion (no colleteral)


2. Naked short selling. Equivalent to counterfeiting. Selling things you don't owned. It is Fiat.


3. Buy stocks in margin. Borrowing stocks and selling short during Lehman Brothers.


4. Program sellings, took advantages on gap between genuine traders.

Web of Debt

1. Ellen Brown, author for Web of Debt. Bank can borrow at 0.25% (benefits the banks that cause the problems)


2. Need to have own credit system like North Dakhota, and not dependent on the Wall Street.

SOS When will the Music Stop

Mr Bullish - you just miss the once in a lifetime bull market if you do not enter soon, as proven since March 2009.

Mr Bearish - you must be crazy to enter the DJIA now as it has increase about 75% from its March 2009 low.

Bullish Team - most of them already entered the market i.e. action already taken, not much cash left to enter the market

Bearish Team - has been side line since August 2009, almost 10 months did not enter the market on worry that the market will collapse further below March 2009

Realistic Team is short the market (when it is near 11,000), while trade on good dividend yield stocks since August 2009.

MyView

At the moment, Realistic Team may be losing money on his short, but the good dividend yield stocks has gave them a reasonable gain. So when the market turn bearish, the Realistic Team will reduce its good dividend yield stock and make money from the SHORT.

Actually it does not matter if you are bullish or bearish, the one that makes reasonable return is actually the realistic team.

So how would one be consider a realistic team? Follow good dividend yield stocks until it is no longer attractive (i.e. yield below 6%) and then put a short just in case the rally collapse like in Sept 2008. The short is a hedge to a sudden collapse, while the high dividend yield stocks act as the cash cow until it is no longer attractive.

SOS Good Movies

Old and good movies

1. Stranger than Fiction


2. The Bucket List


3. Seven Pound


4. An Education


5. I am Sam


6. Movies in cinema actually reflect the social trends.

SOS will it repeat?

What is the probalistic chance of this happening in May to Oct 2010? Let me just count, hmm, it has been almost 80 years since 1929, chances are low, ain't it?

What about this?

• Do we believe if we are in the 70s thought China would be what it is today?
• Do we believe that in 1998, when crude oil price is at USD10-15 per barrel became USD147 per barrel in 2008?

What are the odds?

Does trends always need to be linear?

Why, start researching

SOS Economics

Economics is great, anyone can become one.

Even kids can be good economists.

What do they need to know, nothing much actually.

The amount of data analysed by PhD, Dr, on economics is unbelievable.

Everyone has one theory.

So will be the kid.

Bottomline, economic is up to your own interpretation and perception, depends what angle you are looking from.

MyView

The point here is economics learned in school is theory, not reality, hence, there is no correct answer to economic problem because the elements involves is far from just statistics, figures, or facts, it involves something we seldom learn in school, and hard to predict, it is called human behaviour.

Until we are able to have a feel how human behaviour react to a economic situation, it will be hard to predict what will happen next. Economist may suggest all methods to solve the problems, one thing which they are sure in their mind is that they are not sure the reaction of the solution. It can go both ways.

The SOLUTION is no solution. Just do it for the best interest of the majority, not the wall street, the main street, even at the expense of losing your popularity.

SOS Conventional Analyst

What is their report based on?

• PE ratio


• GDP growth


• interest rate trends


• war


• economic crisis


• RNAV


• DCF


• EBITDA/EV


• Dividend

Just look at the recent news on Greece,

When the market goes up, the news will be (Forbes)

March 26, 2010
A Greek default has been avoided. The ECB is holding its nose. But the test will come in the markets next week.

When the market goes down

April 29, 2010
Greece explodes -- and so does an oil rig. Here's what they have in common

If you notice, the news is after the event, so it cannot be wrong. When the markets drop, the news will say it drops because of .......

And when it goes up, the news will say because it ...............

This is the same for conventional analyst who based on GDP, interest, PE ratio, DCF, RNAV, and whatever fancy ratio to substantiate their Target Price. One month hot, one month cold. Can you imagine, if an investor follow this analyst, within a span of 2 months, the target price can range between RM3 to RM8 per share? It is a fallacy to say that this conventional analyst is objective in his statement. We are lying to ourselves.