SOS Bull or Bear

The question is, will USA become like Japan in 1989.

Similarity:

1. Japan property bubble driven up by lax credits and innovations in property lendings




2. Share market bubble driven up by credits

Differentiations:

1. USA property bubble also driven up by lax credits + derivatives




2. Share market peaked in 2007, but not a crazy PEs but dividend yields perspective, USA is at historical low




3. USA derivatives is huge, few times bigger than their GDP




4. USA is the international currency, Japan is not

MyView

I believe USA will be like Japan, deflate first, then hyperinflate, or both happening at the same time, credit driven assets will deflate, consumable will inflates or hyperinflate.