Friday, July 16, 2010
SOS Are we there yet?
Harry Dent said in July 2010 -
based on his demographic trend said it is time to sell ahead of the tsunami between August to Oct 2010. Mainly because mortgage loan is due for resets, rising geopolitical tension in Iran, consumers slow again, disappointing 2nd quarter GDP, government default in Southern and East Europe, rising long term interest and mortgage rates, unprecedented bubble in China bursts after the US and Europe slow again
Robert Prechter said in July 2010
based on social mood reflected in the Elliott Wave, all signs shows going down from now, cycle, technical, waves etc.
Gary Shillings said
slows in consumer spending, implosion of debt (US and Europe), saving rate, credit contration
MyView
Simple analogy, the factors that cause the crisis in 2008 is not addressed, i.e. over spending, over leverage, derivatives.
Instead, the government trying to stimulate out of the problem by encourage more spending and debt, and did not do anything on the derivatives.
So, when the drug in the blood wear off, what will happen? The questions is why now, i.e. August to Dec 2010? See above.
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