SOS Short US and China?

Gold on surface of earth is worth about USD5 trillion (unlikely able to replace US dollar)

World GDP is about USD60 trillion

World Derivatives is about USD600 trillion

China GDP is about USD4 trillion - stimulus plan of USD585 billion (14% of GDP)

USA GDP is about USD14 trillion

China has to grow 10% p.a. consistently for at least 13 years to reach the USD14 trillion mark or at least 16 years of 8% p.a.

About 250million American earn above USD26,000 p.a.

In China, at the moment is about 110 million Chinese earn that figure, can they catch up in 10 yrs. 20-30 yrs sound more considerable. But that long, anything can happen. Normally, growth seldom increase in a linear way. Just look at Japan, once upon a time, we thought it will take over USA, look where are they now?

MyView

It is the easy to say China population of 1.3 billion will be the new force, but if we analyze carefully, only about 8% of the population has the capacity of descretionary spending with per capita of more than USD25,000. So, it is a bit far fetch to say China will take over USA in 10 years time. Nearly all developing countries goes through the BUST. Look at HK, Japan, Korea, Taiwan. Japan lose 20 yrs.

Lets monitor these two stocks @ 19.01.10 over the next two years:

SH - short S&P 500 USD51.00 per share

FXP - short China 25 USD8.00 per share