Sunday, December 27, 2009

SOS Economics 101

  1. US private debt is about USD43 trillion. (not including unfunded social care and medicare)
  2. US Government stimulate the economy by stimulus of say US1.0 trillion into the banking system, while the bank, under the fractional system lend out remaining US9.0 trillion.
  3. The critical question is who will take this loan, while most household already overborrowed (300% of GDP of US)
  4. Government effort is principally takeover the private sector debt, and try to stimulate the economy by themselves, which will never work as the private sector cannot further increases its loan level.
  5. US will likely end up like the Japanese, when government loan grows to 200% of GDP while the economy is going no where.

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