Will there be another Lehman meltdown?
I believe it is more of a slow depression, with asset class that goes up very high due to gearing, it will deflate when no new credit is created or hard to creat. This is similar to boiling the frog slowly with one or two heart attack in between.
No QE can stop the wave of debt implosion, which is 20 to 50 times larger than the money printed, like a tsunami. The only way is to conserve cash and wait. Property prices or commodities may drop between 20-60%.
But there was a saying in Malaysia, property never drop, based on 30 years history. Well, we will make history just like the American.
save our soul www.falundafa.org
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
Thursday, May 31, 2012
SOS Testimonial of a practitioner
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=ay1VUHxSzF0#t=6s
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
SOS Best Predictions for 2012 by Charles Nenner
Dec 2011
Global equity markets are set for precipitous declines mid-way through next year, according to leading technical analyst, Charles Nenner, head of research at the Charles Nenner Research Centre in Amsterdam.
Nenner has been dubbed the “cycle guru”, because he uses technical analysis to predict future market moves. He has developed a huge following among hedge funds, investment bankers and brokers because of his strong track record in predicting major market moves. Nenner attracted a lot of attention in 2007 when he warned of trouble ahead for the US market. In February 2009, he predicted a major rally would begin “in a few weeks” that would push the S&P index up over 1,000.
In an interview with Business Spectator, Nenner forecasts that 2012 will be a tale of two halves. “I still think we’ll see a little bit more positivity in equity markets until the middle of 2012, then they’ll really be in trouble.”
This bleak outlook for global equity markets is consistent with his economic outlook. Europe, he says, is now definitely in recession, while the United States never came out of recession. Even worse, he says, the decision by the European authorities to conduct stress tests on Europe’s banks has triggered a credit crunch at exactly the wrong time.
“I think we’re heading for a depression. We’re going to have deflation starting in Europe.”
Not surprisingly, Nenner is also predicting the eventual collapse of the eurozone. “It’s going to happen, but not right now. The people who put together the European Union and the euro had no clue what they were doing. But the politicians will try to keep it going as long as they’re in power, because no one wants to be remembered as the ones who presided over its collapse.
“I think they’ll be able to keep it going for another one or two years. They’d like keep it going for another three or four years, but they don’t have the money to do that.”
And Nenner warns that the Chinese economy will not escape the woes afflicting the global economy. He predicts that the Chinese government will move to stimulate the Chinese economy, which will provide a boost to global equity markets early next year. But, he warns, the Chinese are still heavily dependent on selling goods to the United States and Europe, and the Chinese banks face serious difficulties with problem loans.
But Nenner is much more optimistic when it comes to the Australian economy.
He believes that the local currency is set for a big move higher in coming months, which could push it up by around 15 per cent. At the same time, he says, the local economy is under control and interest rates are at a reasonable level.
He’s also bullish on gold, saying that he’s hoping to buy back into the gold market at the beginning of 2012. (Nenner went long on gold when it was trading at $US400 per troy ounce, but later closed out his position). He believes that the bull market in the precious metal will continue, with the gold price hitting $US2,500/oz in a year or so particularly if, as he predicts, a major global conflict erupts in late 2012 or 2013.]
Nenner also forecasts that in the middle of next year, the US dollar will enter a major bull market that will last several years.
Given the perilous outlook for the global economy, what are Nenner’s favourite investments for 2012?
“Buy land. I want something tangible – not anything connected with the financial system, not banks. And real estate is still over-priced.’
On the other hand, he says, land is an attractive option given that agricultural commodities such as wheat, corn and beans will be in a bull market for the next 10 years.
“I’m from the Netherlands. There the investment approach is to avoid losing money. And there will be a lot of wealth destruction next year.”
He adds that most of his clients are also focussed on avoiding losses.
“Their mood is very negative. Everybody is looking at which bank they should be keeping their money in. Everybody is very worried. Most of them are buying farm land – in Australia, in Canada and in the mid-west of the United States.”
Global equity markets are set for precipitous declines mid-way through next year, according to leading technical analyst, Charles Nenner, head of research at the Charles Nenner Research Centre in Amsterdam.
Nenner has been dubbed the “cycle guru”, because he uses technical analysis to predict future market moves. He has developed a huge following among hedge funds, investment bankers and brokers because of his strong track record in predicting major market moves. Nenner attracted a lot of attention in 2007 when he warned of trouble ahead for the US market. In February 2009, he predicted a major rally would begin “in a few weeks” that would push the S&P index up over 1,000.
In an interview with Business Spectator, Nenner forecasts that 2012 will be a tale of two halves. “I still think we’ll see a little bit more positivity in equity markets until the middle of 2012, then they’ll really be in trouble.”
This bleak outlook for global equity markets is consistent with his economic outlook. Europe, he says, is now definitely in recession, while the United States never came out of recession. Even worse, he says, the decision by the European authorities to conduct stress tests on Europe’s banks has triggered a credit crunch at exactly the wrong time.
“I think we’re heading for a depression. We’re going to have deflation starting in Europe.”
Not surprisingly, Nenner is also predicting the eventual collapse of the eurozone. “It’s going to happen, but not right now. The people who put together the European Union and the euro had no clue what they were doing. But the politicians will try to keep it going as long as they’re in power, because no one wants to be remembered as the ones who presided over its collapse.
“I think they’ll be able to keep it going for another one or two years. They’d like keep it going for another three or four years, but they don’t have the money to do that.”
And Nenner warns that the Chinese economy will not escape the woes afflicting the global economy. He predicts that the Chinese government will move to stimulate the Chinese economy, which will provide a boost to global equity markets early next year. But, he warns, the Chinese are still heavily dependent on selling goods to the United States and Europe, and the Chinese banks face serious difficulties with problem loans.
But Nenner is much more optimistic when it comes to the Australian economy.
He believes that the local currency is set for a big move higher in coming months, which could push it up by around 15 per cent. At the same time, he says, the local economy is under control and interest rates are at a reasonable level.
He’s also bullish on gold, saying that he’s hoping to buy back into the gold market at the beginning of 2012. (Nenner went long on gold when it was trading at $US400 per troy ounce, but later closed out his position). He believes that the bull market in the precious metal will continue, with the gold price hitting $US2,500/oz in a year or so particularly if, as he predicts, a major global conflict erupts in late 2012 or 2013.]
Nenner also forecasts that in the middle of next year, the US dollar will enter a major bull market that will last several years.
Given the perilous outlook for the global economy, what are Nenner’s favourite investments for 2012?
“Buy land. I want something tangible – not anything connected with the financial system, not banks. And real estate is still over-priced.’
On the other hand, he says, land is an attractive option given that agricultural commodities such as wheat, corn and beans will be in a bull market for the next 10 years.
“I’m from the Netherlands. There the investment approach is to avoid losing money. And there will be a lot of wealth destruction next year.”
He adds that most of his clients are also focussed on avoiding losses.
“Their mood is very negative. Everybody is looking at which bank they should be keeping their money in. Everybody is very worried. Most of them are buying farm land – in Australia, in Canada and in the mid-west of the United States.”
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
SOS Back to Mythonomics
Mythonomics
Is majority believe something, but the truth is opposite
Because of the majority believes, the financial market reacts based on this majority believe
The fact is this believe is actually the opposite of truth
This will continue for a long time, as long as majority and the mass media sells it,
Majority will believe it, because, they do not get sufficient information on the truth
That is how the world works,
The truth is irrelevant, the key is the perception is more important than the truth
So, now the REALONOMICS
The truth sometime is harder to understand, because, the fixed notions are formed in the majority mind.
Myth No. 1 - printing of money post 2008 crisis will cause hyperinflation.
During the 2008 crisis, the Fed has pump about USD1.7 trillion into the banking system. USD1.5trillion is still in the reserve of the bank, kept as reserve.
The velocity of money, M2, actually slows down since 2000, even with the injection of money.
There is no growth in new credits, as banks are afraid to give out loans.
Because of the wrong expectation that the printing of money will cause hyperinflation, many has bought gold and silver, in anticipating of spiral inflation. So the price of these precious metals rises to new high until May 11, 2012. The real fact and truth is, there is no hyperinflation as they thought it would be.
Why? Because the deflation is at work. The age of deleveraging as mentioned by Gary Shilling will eventually come to past, the debt that turn bad far exceed the new money that is printed, afterall, 88% is still in the banking system instead of reaching to the small and medium industries, which explain why the unemployment remain at 8%.
Yes, a lot of people expect USD currency become toilet paper, but against who? The Euro is much worst. EU has about 10% unemployment. PIIGS is causing lots of problems.
So what will happen next,
In the long run 5-10 yrs, various type of assets will deflate at different times, be it properties, equities, precious metals, iron ore, copper, nickle, and other consumable commodities, not because they are no demand for it, because of the debt implosion. The fear that set the commodities prices sore higher because of fear of hyperinflation did not turn out. So, when the truth are reveal, DEFLATION will prevail, and people will be then fear that the various assets price will drop (because it was inflated by fear of hyperinflation in the first place), prices will drop gradually for different type of assets.
There is no clear solution to this, USD will strengthen in the long run because the BAD DEBTS will wipe out many trillions from the world (after all most debt are denominated in USD). So, will there be short of USD or too much of it, give it a deep thought.
If you are on the wrong side of the coin, you may loss some money, if you are at the right side, you may gain some money. Whichever it is, don't take it seriously. Just money.
Is majority believe something, but the truth is opposite
Because of the majority believes, the financial market reacts based on this majority believe
The fact is this believe is actually the opposite of truth
This will continue for a long time, as long as majority and the mass media sells it,
Majority will believe it, because, they do not get sufficient information on the truth
That is how the world works,
The truth is irrelevant, the key is the perception is more important than the truth
So, now the REALONOMICS
The truth sometime is harder to understand, because, the fixed notions are formed in the majority mind.
Myth No. 1 - printing of money post 2008 crisis will cause hyperinflation.
During the 2008 crisis, the Fed has pump about USD1.7 trillion into the banking system. USD1.5trillion is still in the reserve of the bank, kept as reserve.
The velocity of money, M2, actually slows down since 2000, even with the injection of money.
There is no growth in new credits, as banks are afraid to give out loans.
Because of the wrong expectation that the printing of money will cause hyperinflation, many has bought gold and silver, in anticipating of spiral inflation. So the price of these precious metals rises to new high until May 11, 2012. The real fact and truth is, there is no hyperinflation as they thought it would be.
Why? Because the deflation is at work. The age of deleveraging as mentioned by Gary Shilling will eventually come to past, the debt that turn bad far exceed the new money that is printed, afterall, 88% is still in the banking system instead of reaching to the small and medium industries, which explain why the unemployment remain at 8%.
Yes, a lot of people expect USD currency become toilet paper, but against who? The Euro is much worst. EU has about 10% unemployment. PIIGS is causing lots of problems.
So what will happen next,
In the long run 5-10 yrs, various type of assets will deflate at different times, be it properties, equities, precious metals, iron ore, copper, nickle, and other consumable commodities, not because they are no demand for it, because of the debt implosion. The fear that set the commodities prices sore higher because of fear of hyperinflation did not turn out. So, when the truth are reveal, DEFLATION will prevail, and people will be then fear that the various assets price will drop (because it was inflated by fear of hyperinflation in the first place), prices will drop gradually for different type of assets.
There is no clear solution to this, USD will strengthen in the long run because the BAD DEBTS will wipe out many trillions from the world (after all most debt are denominated in USD). So, will there be short of USD or too much of it, give it a deep thought.
If you are on the wrong side of the coin, you may loss some money, if you are at the right side, you may gain some money. Whichever it is, don't take it seriously. Just money.
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
SOS where is morality going?
15 yrs ago, we leave our gate open while we go out for less than one hour
15 yrs ago, we do not need auto gate
15 yrs ago, we do not have cctv
15 years ago, we do not need an alarm system
15 years ago, we do not have security guard
15 years ago, children walk to school when it is less than 1km, today, they take bus
Today,
Auto gate = RM4000
CCTV = RM2000
Alarm system = RM3000
Security guard = RM600 a year x 10 yrs = RM6000
Bus fare = RM200 per month or RM2400 a year
Who says government not responsible?
Cost of living already increase by RM15,000- RM17,000 just keep our home safer.
OK this is not about cost of living, this is about the morality. It is very obvious, morality has dropped, hence, more crime.
15 yrs ago, we do not need auto gate
15 yrs ago, we do not have cctv
15 years ago, we do not need an alarm system
15 years ago, we do not have security guard
15 years ago, children walk to school when it is less than 1km, today, they take bus
Today,
Auto gate = RM4000
CCTV = RM2000
Alarm system = RM3000
Security guard = RM600 a year x 10 yrs = RM6000
Bus fare = RM200 per month or RM2400 a year
Who says government not responsible?
Cost of living already increase by RM15,000- RM17,000 just keep our home safer.
OK this is not about cost of living, this is about the morality. It is very obvious, morality has dropped, hence, more crime.
Monday, May 21, 2012
SOS What happen to China in 1992 & 1999
Just seven years apart,
One gives the world with hope,
The other trying to take it away,
Such a contrast year apart,
One teaches truthfullness, compassion and tolerance,
The other preaches lies, violent and hatred,
1992, falun dafa is spread,
1999, the china communist party illegally persecute it,
20 years ago, falun gong was introduced,
It spreads quickly by word of mouth,
Not only it helps in physical health,
It also improve human moral,
It also given us a hope, in human spiritual levels
www.falundafa.org
One gives the world with hope,
The other trying to take it away,
Such a contrast year apart,
One teaches truthfullness, compassion and tolerance,
The other preaches lies, violent and hatred,
1992, falun dafa is spread,
1999, the china communist party illegally persecute it,
20 years ago, falun gong was introduced,
It spreads quickly by word of mouth,
Not only it helps in physical health,
It also improve human moral,
It also given us a hope, in human spiritual levels
www.falundafa.org
Monday, May 7, 2012
SOS Just a few thoughts
A Good Practice that is twisted into something Bad!
A person's mind is very complex, it is not fully guided by rational, it is influence very much by emotions, which is based on a person's notion and experience. And it is often misguided by the influence of media who's main purpose is to instilled misguided information for its own benefits, whoever controls it.
In the case of China, it uses the media as a tools or propaganda in persecuting the Falun Gong practitioners, those who actually holding on to the principle of truthfulness, compassion and tolerance. How can the CCP, China Communist Party persecutes a group of practitioners that cultivate to be a good person by following the said principles.
And why does it only happen in China? Falun gong is practised in 70 other countries, and none actually persecutes Falun Gong. The CCP claims or accused falun gong practitioners are bad, i.e. involved in killings, suicides, murders, gone insane etc and that "strangely" enough, it only happen in China, but not anyway else around the world? And, also strangely, when it first started in 1992 to 1999 (prior to the illegal persecution in June 1999), there were no major media reported of such incidents like killings, suicides, murders, gone insane or causes major social issues.
In fact, in its earlier years, surveys were conducted on falun gong practitioners and non practitioners and found that the practitioners health improved after practising and visits less doctors, therefore saving governments millions in medical expenses. Why out of a sudden in 1999, after 7 years it was spread to the entire China and overseas, the CCP condemned that falun gong practitioners are illegal? The same CCP government also given many awards, certifications and recognitions that falun gong actually is beneficial to health.
It is sad and dissappointing that CCP is misused its rights to persecute a group of elderly who has no political aims to overthrow the CCP or not interested in politics.
I personally has practiced and continuing to encourage others to practice falun gong because it helps the mind, body and spiritual improvements. And I and many other genuine practitioners can vouch the benefits they obtain from falun gong practice.
For those who likes to know more or try it out, feel free to visit, www.falundafa.org and read the benefits of falun gong and more importantly try it out if it does benefits the mind and body. If you can experience the positive changes, do continue the practice.
A person's mind is very complex, it is not fully guided by rational, it is influence very much by emotions, which is based on a person's notion and experience. And it is often misguided by the influence of media who's main purpose is to instilled misguided information for its own benefits, whoever controls it.
In the case of China, it uses the media as a tools or propaganda in persecuting the Falun Gong practitioners, those who actually holding on to the principle of truthfulness, compassion and tolerance. How can the CCP, China Communist Party persecutes a group of practitioners that cultivate to be a good person by following the said principles.
And why does it only happen in China? Falun gong is practised in 70 other countries, and none actually persecutes Falun Gong. The CCP claims or accused falun gong practitioners are bad, i.e. involved in killings, suicides, murders, gone insane etc and that "strangely" enough, it only happen in China, but not anyway else around the world? And, also strangely, when it first started in 1992 to 1999 (prior to the illegal persecution in June 1999), there were no major media reported of such incidents like killings, suicides, murders, gone insane or causes major social issues.
In fact, in its earlier years, surveys were conducted on falun gong practitioners and non practitioners and found that the practitioners health improved after practising and visits less doctors, therefore saving governments millions in medical expenses. Why out of a sudden in 1999, after 7 years it was spread to the entire China and overseas, the CCP condemned that falun gong practitioners are illegal? The same CCP government also given many awards, certifications and recognitions that falun gong actually is beneficial to health.
It is sad and dissappointing that CCP is misused its rights to persecute a group of elderly who has no political aims to overthrow the CCP or not interested in politics.
I personally has practiced and continuing to encourage others to practice falun gong because it helps the mind, body and spiritual improvements. And I and many other genuine practitioners can vouch the benefits they obtain from falun gong practice.
For those who likes to know more or try it out, feel free to visit, www.falundafa.org and read the benefits of falun gong and more importantly try it out if it does benefits the mind and body. If you can experience the positive changes, do continue the practice.
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