SOS How significant are you?

Do we sometimes wonder how significant are we from the bigger planet/star perspective? Just look at the four picture and it will make us think, are we that significant?

SOS Few things to know

What has not change

• CDS is still unregulated


• Derivatives rules remains


• Housings still dropping


• Commercial property still dropping (Haft a trillion is due and many are securitized)


• Unemployment did not improve much


• Consumers purchasing powers weaken

So, it is about time another bubble will implode, April to June 2010?

SOS Let it be.....

Let it be........... let it be ..... let it be....

If fate thinks its yours it will be yours, if fate thinks it is not yours it will not be yours

March to May 201o will peak, after that, CRASH...................................

The best place to be with now is CASH

Look at the DSI chart.

SOS What effects the market?

Is there a catalyst?

Look at 2007 in USA, the mood change before Lehman blows up in Sep 2008.
Look at March 2009 in USA, is the stimulus cause the stocks to go up, nope, it is the social moods.

Social moods basically is patterned, hence it is predictable. The tool to study social moods is Elliottewave principles.

Events happens arising from the social moods, earnings, interest rates, mortgage collapse, unemployment etc.

SOS Invictus

Invictus

Out of the night that covers me,

Black as the pit from pole to pole,

I thank whatever gods may be

For my unconquerable soul.

In the fell clutch of circumstance

I have not winced nor cried aloud.

Under the bludgeonings of chance

My head is bloody, but unbowed.

Beyond this place of wrath and tears

Looms but the Horror of the shade,

And yet the menace of the years

Finds and shall find me unafraid.

It matters not how strait the gate,

How charged with punishments the scroll,

I am the master of my fate:

I am the captain of my soul.

A short poem by the English poet William Ernest Henley

SOS Short or Long?

Why short?

Everyone else is bullish.

Why long?

Everyone else is bearish.

We hardly hear that the majority got rich or got it right. That is a fact.

MyView

It is a heartache to know that in the investment world, no matter how knowledgeable you are, when your investment returns is weak or not profitable, you are deemed to be not a smart investor, because the only measurement is the result, i.e. how much did you make?

However, a lot of people claim to be winner before they end the game. Remember, the stock markets never ends, only the investor. For me, until one stops investing in the market, he or she must tally up its gain or loss. Of course, it is very hard to compare with each other because each has different starting line. More importantly, it is the finishing line is important, that is the time you liquidate all your shares into cash and does not continue to invest in share markets.

Hence, investment in share markets can actually be a lifelong marathon. It is an interesting game in fact, just enjoy the journey as well as the destination.

SOS Gary Shillings Recession Over?

By Gary Shillings on 1 April 2010

Four (4) pillars one has to look at from the positive economic figures due to item (1) but items 2-4 is not convincing:

1. Unwinding of inventories
2. Housing not rebounded
3. Employment still weak
4. Consumer income is weak

Gary is not pessimistic, he is just a realist.

08 - did well (13 predictions achieved)
09 - flat

If you drop 90% in 08, and double in 09, you are still 80% down.
If you drop 80% in 08, and double in 09, you are still 60% down.
If you drop 50% in 08, and double in 09, you are still 20% down


For 2010

1. Long USD
2. Long Bond
3. Selective and long high dividend yield stocks